With two weeks until the last day to vote in the 2022 general election, candidates vying to keep the Alaska House Majority Coalition together have out-raised their GOP opponents and have more cash-on-hand to spend.
The House Majority Coalition was assembled in 2016 after a group of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents started caucusing together to address the multi-billion dollar budget deficit the state then faced. The coalition has ebbed and flowed with other members being added, as well as others leaving or losing re-election. As it stands, the Coalition has just 21 members — a tight majority in the 40 person lower legislative chamber which leaves them without one member to spare.
The House Majority Coalition puts center-left lawmakers in the majority. Even though the coalition is far more moderate than a Democratic majority would be, it gives progressive legislators more power than they would otherwise have on their own if a totally Republican caucus controlled the majority. Perhaps more valuable, it serves as a roadblock to the interests of both Governor Dunleavy as well as far-right legislators who find themselves in the minority due to the coalition.
According to Alaska Public Offices Commission reports filed on October 10th, House Majority Coalition candidates have raised about $1.7 million for their races. Conservative candidates in the minority caucus who want to flip the House back to a Republican majority have raised about $976,000, giving House Majority candidates a $742,000 advantage.
If we exclude uncontested races and races where there is no competition between GOP and House Majority Coalition candidates, the House Majority Coalition fundraising advantage increases to $859,000.
GOP fundraising against each other
Additionally, some of the most well-funded Republicans are not in races against House Majority candidates, but rather other further-to-the-right members of their own party. Of the seven races where Republicans raised the most, only three are against House Majority Coalition candidates. This includes Anchorage Assemblywoman Jamie Allard’s head-to-head race against fellow Republican Roger Branson, and the battle between former Rep. Dan Saddler and current Rep. Sharon “Action” Jackson, both of Eagle River.
By contrast, of the top seven races where House Majority Coalition candidates have raised the most, five of them are competitive.
Who’s got money in the bank?
Total money raised is a helpful indicator of enthusiasm for certain races, and how much each candidate has to communicate with voters in the final weeks of the election. To help determine who has the money to get across the finish line, it’s better to look at how much money candidates actually have to spend going into November. Cash-on-hand, or how much money a candidate has left to spend after surpluses/debts are accounted for, is a much better indicator than total funds raised at this point in the election cycle.
In competitive races, House Majority Coalition candidates have a cash-on-hand advantage of $266,000.
Of all 40 House District races, there are five that are most likely to determine control of the House. These five races are in districts that can swing in favor of any party, and happen to be districts where Trump or Biden won by fewer than 7 points. Three are also open seats, meaning there is no incumbent legislator to unseat.
House Majority Coalition candidates hold the cash-on-hand advantage in four out of five competitive races. To keep the chamber within their control, House Majority Coalition candidates will likely have to win every single one of them:
| District | Location | 2020 Presidential Vote | Democratic Candidate | GOP Candidate | Cash on Hand Advantage |
| 31 | Downtown Fairbanks | Trump +.70% | Dibert | LeBon* | Dibert +$12k |
| 13 | Taku-Campbell | Biden +4% | Josephson | Henslee | Josephson +$30k |
| 22 | NE Muldoon | Biden +7% | Eischeid | Wright | Wright +$1.5k |
| 21 | South Muldoon | Biden +6% | Mears | Wolfe | Mears +$16k |
| 18 | Gov Hill/JBER/N. Muldoon | Biden +4% | Groh/Franks | Nelson* | Groh/Franks +$62 |
*=Incumbent
More cash to come
The true impact of the cash-on-hand advantage will become apparent in the final weeks as candidates and independent expenditure groups spend big in a final push to influence who controls the House next year.
It is unclear how this money will impact these races. We do know that money matters the most in close races, particularly in the final stretch when voters are beginning to make their final decisions. We’ll be sure to update you on the final totals along with the election results. The 2022 General Election takes place on November 8, 2022.
