Mary Peltola’s upset victory in the special election to fill the remainder of longtime GOP Rep. Don Young’s term has many wondering – can she defy political gravity and win a full term? Because of the incumbent’s broad appeal, long-standing political dynamics in the Last Frontier, and Republican infighting, we believe the answer is yes.
In victory, Peltola over-performed in the Alaska Bush, high-density parts of Anchorage, Juneau, and the rural southeastern part of the state. This helps define Peltola’s broad appeal, critical to success in a ranked-choice election. Unlike first-past-the-post, where rock-solid bases enable victories, ranked-choice schemes force candidates to appeal to the broadest possible electorate to carry the day. In close contests, winners are decided by reordered second- and third-choice preferences.
There are four candidates in the race this fall: Peltola, a Democrat; Chris Bye, a Libertarian; and Republicans Nick Begich III and Sarah Palin. Peltola’s special election victory can be attributed to three factors:
- Peltola’s approvals among moderates, independents, and soft conservatives gave her a broad base – even Sarah Palin herself continues to speak highly of Peltola
- Sarah Palin, the most prominent Republican challenger, had horrendously high disapproval numbers in all publicly available polling
- Nick Begich III, the second Republican in the race, publicly feuded with Palin and half his voters ranked Peltola second or exhausted their ballots altogether
The third point is important – ballot exhaustion is the key to ranked-choice contests. If the first-place candidate does not achieve 50% in the first round, the more that second- and third-place candidates exhaust their ballots, the fewer votes remain to cut into the winner’s lead. The division between Begich and Palin nearly split the GOP vote down the middle in the first round. Palin got 31% and Begich got 28%. Of those 28% of Begich voters, a significant number ranked Peltola second. This dynamic is expected to persist into November – where Libertarian Chris Bye will likely be eliminated first.
Polling from the fall indicates that Peltola will beat either Begich or Palin in a head-to-head. This is different from the special, where polling indicated that Peltola would have lost an instant runoff to Begich. The most prominent polls from Alaska Survey Research correctly predicted a 2-point win for Peltola at the time, numbers very close to the final result.
Peltola has accumulated goodwill: Many of Don Young’s senior staffers and close associates are also pulling strongly for her against both Republicans, including Begich, who interned in Young’s office but did not leave a good impression and was accused of “dishonoring Alaska.” The incumbent’s brand has been reinforced by a mutual endorsement pact with GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski. In a state known for independent-minded politicians, with a new electoral system that rewards appealing mavericks, it is strategically wise for Peltola to tie herself to Murkowski.
The general election will likely have higher turnout than the special election, which was held on the same date as Alaska’s regular primary election. Alaska general electorates also tend to be more Democratic than those of state primaries, with more Alaska Native voters coming to the polls.
At Split Ticket, we recently moved this district to Leans Democratic. Polling indicates that Peltola’s first-round margin should end up in the mid to high 40s, enabling an easy victory.
For more insight on this year’s election cycle, visit https://split-ticket.org/. Follow Armin Thomas and Harrison Lavelle on Twitter.
