Rep. Mary Peltola (D) is very likely on her way to reelection, even though we won’t see final results until the rank choice tabulation is done on Nov. 23. In August, Peltola earned 40% of first-choice votes. After Republican Nick Begich III (R) was eliminated during the first round of ranked choice voting, Peltola prevailed over former Gov. Sarah Palin (R) by just 3 points.
Perhaps more importantly, she showed how progressives can redraw the map in a state that has historically been seen as a Republican stronghold.
Facing reelection with a far more moderate-to-liberal electorate, Peltola is currently sitting at 47% with more than 43,000 remaining ballots left to count by the Division of Elections. With mostly absentees and early votes, which Peltola is currently winning handily. Peltola is widely expected to be reelected, given that she needs far fewer of Begich’s votes to beat Palin than she did in August.
Peltola is easily the best-performing Democratic candidate since former Sen. Mark Begich (D). Mark Begich was the last Democrat to win a statewide election when he defeated the late Sen. Ted Stevens (R) in 2008, winning 47.77% of the vote. During a tough year for Democrats nationwide, Mark Begich was defeated in 2014 by now-Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), earning 45.83%.
Prior to 2008, a Democrat had not won statewide in Alaska since Gov. Tony Knowles (D) was reelected with 51.27% of the vote — the best performance of an Alaska Democrat since the discovery of oil in Prudhoe Bay turned Alaska blood red.
Peltola is poised to become the most successful Alaska Democrat in 20 years once all the votes are counted. Plenty have speculated about the secret to Peltola’s success. Peltola ran a near 100% positive campaign, has rural Alaska cred, and in many ways followed in Don Young’s footsteps helped fuel her popularity. She is also dripping with authenticity, something that proved effective nationwide.
But electorally, Peltola is redrawing the map for Alaska progressives to win statewide. Major population changes in the last decade as well as national polarization changed what areas candidates need to win.
For instance, here’s Mark Begich’s 2008 election to the US Senate.
Begich won by running up high margins in Southeast and winning Anchorage and Fairbanks by low single digits (both far more Republican-leaning at the time). Importantly, Mark Begich kept his losses down to a minimum in the ultra-conservative Mat-Su Valley.
This is a coalition of progressives and moderate Republicans, largely bonded by their mutual distaste for Sen. Stevens’ seven-count indictment for mishandling political gifts.
The next non-Republican to win was the Unity Ticket of former Republican-turned-Independent Bill Walker and Democratic Alaska Native leader Byron Mallot. When all was said and done, the ticket prevailed by less than 7,000 votes.
Walker/Mallot traded their Southeast margins for increased support in Southcentral and Fairbanks. The ticket won Anchorage by six points and Fairbanks by seven points, and only lost the Mat-Su by 15 points. The South Kenai district, of which Homer made up half, also voted for the ticket by five points.
Similar to the coalition brought together by Mark Begich, Walker’s win relied more on labor support, brought in Republicans dissatisfied with former Gov. Sean Parnell, and did incredibly well with independent voters.
Fast-forward to 2022. Since Mark Begich’s 2008 victory, a lot has changed in Alaska. The state’s fiscal crisis persists after the collapse in the price of oil in 2014, causing major shifts in population. The Mat-Su has exploded in growth, and has passed the Fairbanks in total votes cast during a general election. Anchorage has been hemorrhaging population for years, and has moved decidedly to the left (Biden was the first Democrat to win it since Lyndon B Johnson’s nationwide landslide in 1964). Lastly, despite shifting right in 2020, the Bush has grown slightly and become significantly more Democratic.
Peltola will make it to 48%, slightly better than Begich and about on-par with Walker/Mallot.
Note that Republicans have a combined seven-point lead over Peltola despite her taking a plurality of first-choice votes. Even with all the votes counted, Peltola will come up short of reaching 50%. Despite how well she does, Democrats in Alaska are not yet winning a majority of voters. However, with ranked choice voting, Nick Begich’s (R) votes will be reallocated to voters’ second choice candidate. In August, many of those second-choice votes went to Peltola. She needs far fewer of Nick Begich’s votes to win reelection than in August.
Despite her wide appeal, Peltola is losing the Mat-Su by a whopping 44 points, and the Kenai Peninsula by 30 points. Post-Trump politics has animated the conservative base and accelerated polarization, so Democrats can expect to get demolished in both areas.
Notably, Fairbanks is also voting Republican by over 15 points despite the downtown area voting Democratic.
Peltola has traded Republican support in Trump country for much higher margins in Juneau and Anchorage, which make up over 45% of the vote combined and have lurched to the left significantly over the decade.
While the urban areas are shifting left, the most notable shift is in the Bush. Peltola, a Yup’ik woman from Western Alaska, represented Bethel in the State House for 10 years. Her campaign also put considerable resources into engaging hubs and villages in Native-majority areas. With the exception of Lyndon B Johnson’s landslide victory in 1964, no Democrat has cracked 75% of the vote in the Bush.
The voters assembling Peltola’s coalition are all the best parts of Mark Begich and Walker/Mallot’s base: unanimous labor support, landslide margins in the Bush, moderate Republican support in South Anchorage and the Mendenhall Valley, and independent support from swing voters.
To continue winning statewide in Alaska, Democrats need to assemble the Peltola coalition and keep Republican margins in Fairbanks and the Kenai Peninsula down to a minimum. But for now, Peltola has redrawn the map for traditional Democrats by squeezing support out of Anchorage and Juneau while posting an historic performance in the Bush.
