Simple statistics dictate that only a select few political candidates have the mettle to post above-average electoral performances. In an age of declining ticket-splitting and increasingly dominant presidential partisanship, electoral over-performers become rarer and more valuable.
The latest political gem? Alaska’s congresswoman Mary Peltola (D-Bethel), who won re-election to a full term by double digits in November. The full precinct map of her win is printed below:
It’s out! The results for the final round of the #AKAL election, in which @MaryPeltola defeated @SarahPalinUSA by ~10 points – are mapped below and verified by the state’s Cast Vote Record.
Virtually everywhere except for heavily GOP Mat-Su was dominated by Peltola. #akelects pic.twitter.com/GaGLKLEnQ4
— Split Ticket (@SplitTicket_) January 4, 2023
Immediately apparent from the map is Peltola’s domination with every key demographic in the state — the only area where she struggled is in historically ultra-red towns such as North Pole, and in regions of the Kenai Peninsula and Mat-Su. But relative to traditional Democratic performances, she did amazingly well in both Kenai Peninsula (42% Democratic) and Mat-Su (33% Democratic).
Peltola’s deep-blue margins in the Alaska Native-heavy Bush really padded her overall performance. Traditionally, Democrats win the boroughs and census areas of the Bush with 60% to 66% of the vote. But in Peltola’s case, she racked up victories bordering three- or even four-to-one in many cases.
The North Slope voted for Donald Trump in 2020, but voted for Peltola by nearly 53 points — no doubt due to her nuanced messaging on issues of fisheries and oil that are important to voters there. As another example, the Kusilvak Census Area (96% Native according to the Census) is home to numerous Yukon River fishing villages. Biden won it by 33 points in 2020, but Peltola won it by over twice that, getting over 90% of the vote there.
With relatively low-population rural areas such as the Bush, due to lower turnout and/or the relative difficulty of campaigning in isolated turf, there is often negligible electoral impact unless a candidate wins them by the lopsided margins seen here for Peltola. A similar case can be made for how dominant Republican performances with rural white voters in the lower 48 power numerous statewide wins.
The other big driver of her near-double digit margin was her solid performance in Anchorage. Biden won Anchorage by 2, Peltola won it by 22. As the precinct map makes clear, her performance in the area is historic. Many Democratic-trending areas of South Anchorage are home to voters who backed both Biden and Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) in 2020.
In 2022, Peltola swept nearly every Anchorage precinct outside of Eagle River. As the largest municipality in the state, this baseline goes a *long* way to guaranteeing a safeguard win. The other major population center — Fairbanks, voted for Peltola. This area is much more polarized geographically than Anchorage is. While she still struggled in North Pole, she did carry the endorsement of local city councilor Santa Claus. The next largest areas of population are concentrated in the Southeast: Juneau, Ketchikan, and Sitka. Peltola won all of these handily, even winning the Ketchikan Gateway Borough by 8.
All of this is attributable to one major factor: Alaskans genuinely like Mary Peltola and see her as the latest in a long line of independent-branded politicians that have their own genuine convictions about how to deliver best for the state. Her independent brand is reminiscent of former Rep. Don Young and Senator Lisa Murkowski, and allowed her to win on the same ticket as Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy.
As an incumbent, she has an additional platform to advocate for her policies and convince the electorate. Her relatively unique campaign branding of “fish, family, freedom,” proved to be a brilliant connection to Alaskan voters. People outside of the state were charmed by her label of “pro-fish Democrat.”
Inside the state, fisheries are a huge issue for which Peltola produced a very detailed program. Tailor-focused positions that impact a wide range of constituencies go a long way in a state like Alaska. Furthermore, her incumbency gave her an added boost over former Republican Gov. Sarah Palin, who could not gain any traction, and arguably helped Peltola by talking about how well the two got along in the Alaska Legislature. Peltola first won her seat primarily due to Palin’s horrid approvals, but now the magnitude of her victory is in large part due to being a strong incumbent against a weak retread like Palin.
One thing it is emphatically *not* due to: ranked-choice voting. In the aftermath of the August special, many commentators blamed a split in the conservative vote for allowing Peltola to consolidate a first-place spot in subsequent ranked-choice rounds. This was supported by Peltola starting out at just over 40% in the first round and winning due to crossover support from people who voted for Nick Begich III (R) in the first round, as well as cast vote record extrapolations that show that a Peltola vs. Begich matchup in August would have produced a GOP win. That is emphatically not the case here.
In November, Peltola got nearly 49% of the first-round vote on her own. With just a few thousand votes, she would have won outright with the 50% plus one needed. Furthermore, predicting the outcome of a Peltola vs. Begich rematch would have yielded a Peltola victory that was wider than the actual Peltola victory over Palin.
Perhaps running on the same ticket as Joe Biden in 2024 will make life difficult for Peltola, as there will likely be higher turnout from lower-propensity conservative voters. As the number of votes went up from the August Special to the November General, the Begich first round to Peltola final round crossover vote totals went from over 15,000 to over 7,000. No doubt some of that are Democrats who voted for Begich in August consolidating behind their own party’s nominee, but a nonzero amount of those voters were anti-Palin conservatives who increasingly opted for ballot exhaustion.
However, the increase in Alaska Native voter participation during presidential elections could counteract that. If Peltola can maintain her three-to-one and four-to-one margins in the Bush, she maintains a strong shot at reelection. And with the steady leftward march of Anchorage and the Southeast, Mary Peltola might be a Don Young in the making, with a long career in Washington representing Alaska.
For more insight on this year’s election cycle, visit https://split-ticket.org/. Follow Armin Thomas and Harrison Lavelle on Twitter.
