Under new boundaries, Anchorage’s Southside-Turnagain Arm-Girdwood Assembly district stays nearly 90% the same. South Anchorage remains the most wealthy and conservative district in the Anchorage Bowl.
This is the least-changed district following the reapportionment process. Unlike most of the municipality, South has grown in population since the last time districts were redrawn. As a result, the district shifts inward and takes in just a small amount of new territory.
In 2020, voters overwhelmingly passed Prop 12, which added a 12th Assembly member to the body. The passage of Prop 12 triggered the reapportionment process, which changed the boundaries of all six Assembly Districts, some more than others. Check out our interactive map for more detail.
The first city-wide election since reapportionment will take place on April 4th.
BOUNDARIES
Here’s a map showing the changes to the South-Turnagain-Girdwood district:
- Cuts 3,700 from Bayshore; 1,800 from Southport; and 1,400 from the Oceanview area out of the district entirely.
- Adds 1,600 from West Dimond and another 600 from a sliver of Abbott Loop.
- The communities of Klatt, Oceanview, Huffman/O’Malley, the Hillside, Rabbit Creek, Turnagain Arm, and Girdwood were kept in the new South-Turnagain Arm-Girdwood district. Combined, 48,000 people were carried over into the new district.
DEMOGRAPHICS
The Southside has a long reputation of being mainly rich, white, and very conservative. That’s because South Anchorage is home to some of the richest neighborhoods in Alaska — perhaps most infamously the Hillside, which has the highest concentration of million-dollar homes in Anchorage. Many of these neighborhoods, including the Hillside, were built from industries that pay some of the highest wages in the state, like oil, mining, and health care. According to the Census’ ACS five-year data, more than 50% of workers in all but one South Census tract are employed by medical and surgical hospitals, oil and gas, and schools and universities. In the richest part of the Hillside, that number is as high as 66%.
In the new map, South loses the most diverse part of the district: the Bayshore/Klatt area, which has a high population of first-generation Asian immigrants.
However, the district trades it for folks living near the Dimond and Abbott Loop areas, which are altogether 32% Asian and 12% Latino/Hispanic. The effect is little to no change to the total demographics of the district.
| Demographic | Anchorage Muni | Old South | New South |
| White | 56.5% | 70% | 70% |
| Minority | 43.5% | 30% | 30% |
| Hispanic | 9% | 6% | 6% |
| Black | 5% | 3% | 3% |
| Asian | 9.5% | 10% | 10% |
| Alaska Native | 8% | 9.5% | 10% |
| NH/PI | 3% | 1% | 1.5% |
PARTISANSHIP
South is still conservative, but there are big differences in the kind of conservatives that voters on the Southside elect compared to blood-red Eagle River and Chugiak, which is home to more far-right social conservatism.
The Southside— excluding the liberal stronghold of Girdwood — routinely votes Republican, but typically within competitive margins. Many Southside elections are within the 45%-55% range. In 2020, the old South-Turnagain Arm-Girdwood district voted for Trump by just three points.
Up and down the ballot, Southside voters tend to elect less ideologically extreme candidates. Former Southside Assembly member Bill Evans, elected in 2014, ran for mayor in 2021 on a platform of moderation. Jennifer Johnston, elected to the Alaska State House in 2016, joined the Democratic-led House Majority Coalition in 2019. Before being defeated in 2022, John Weddleton was a crucial swing vote on the Assembly. Finally, Suzanne LaFrance, who is retiring her seat this year, is a registered non-partisan and ran for State House in 2020.
Like many suburbs, South Anchorage is built on a culture that is separate from the broader city. Many live there to avoid city life and exist outside of several municipal services. This more rural environment typically attracts wealthy but conservative people. However, unlike blood-red Eagle River-Chugiak (Trump +27), South Anchorage has lower levels of religiosity and higher rates of educational retention. Both are highly polarizing demographic drivers, particularly education.
Take the Hillside, for instance. Most assume some of the whitest and richest neighborhoods in the state are unanimously Republican. Instead, the Hillside gives some of the best margins to independents and Democrats in all of South Anchorage. In 2020, LaFrance won it by nearly 200 votes. Months later, Trump won it by fewer than 130 votes — the worst a Republican has done in the area since 1964.
These are voters who side with Republicans on limited government and market-driven solutions, but can be persuaded to pick a competent moderate independent or progressive over a conservative who prioritizes the advancement of identity politics. In other words: socially moderate but fiscally conservative.
However, there seems to have been a recent shift away from more pragmatic moderates. Shortly after nearly flipping blue at the presidential level in 2020, South Anchorage broke for now-Mayor Dave Bronson by over 2,000 votes. Then, in 2022, moderate Assembly member John Weddleton was handily unseated by Randy Sulte, who was backed by Bronson and the right-wing group Save Anchorage.
Here’s a map that shows a uniform shift away from LaFrance’s two-point win. This shows it isn’t one specific part of South fueling the recent losses of moderate municipal candidates:
Given this context, how do the new changes to the district affect how it might vote? The district essentially trades more conservative voters in Bayshore/Klatt for less conservative but low turnout voters in Dimond. The result is mostly a wash: Trump still wins by three points in 2020 while the average partisanship of the district barely moves left.
| Race | Anchorage Muni | Old Midtown | New Midtown |
| 2020 President | Biden +2 | Trump +3 | Trump +3 |
| 2021 Anc Mayoral Runoff | Bronson +1.32 | Bronson +9.5 | Bronson +9.3 |
| ‘16 – ’20 Average | GOP+2 | GOP +9 | GOP +8.6 |
What is the impact? Conservatives and moderates are still strongly favored. At the municipal level, voters seem to have opted for balance against the mostly liberal-dominated Assembly. Now, with the retirement of Chair Suzanne LaFrance, an open seat may change the dynamics. However, it remains to be seen whether the Southside will continue rejecting those who cooperate with the more liberal wing of the Assembly.
So far, Zac Johnson, Rachel Ries and Mikel Insalaco have filed to run. Johnson is a former Marine, state trooper, and firefighter/EMT. Ries served in the National Guard and ran against now-School Board member Kelly Lessens in 2022. Under the new lines, Ries would have beat Lessens by less than 300 votes. Insalaco is a libertarian who unsuccessfully ran for state House in 2022, where he got 5.2% of the vote.
Correction: An earlier version of this story gave the incorrect party affiliation for Suzanne LaFrance’s State House run. She ran as a registered nonpartisan as the Democratic nominee.
