As the yellow leaves fall from the trees and the last bit of firewood has been stacked for the winter, I always find myself digging into pictures from the past ski seasons as the white line of winter creeps down the mountains towering over Anchorage. I recount all the time spent swimming through the endless deep powder in heavy storms, listening to the childlike giggles of friends skiing ahead, and the feeling of cold crisp air hitting my face on a sunny bluebird day.
While it is easy to dream of the best days, the weather can be a fickle beast — floating on heavenly clouds in the morning and then suddenly being stuck in an actual cloud before noon. Anyone who has spent time in Alaska’s backcountry knows to keep an eye on the sky, watching the clouds move and change, feeling the breeze for any sign of a forthcoming shift in the weather.
With El Niño ramping up for the coming months, I have been investigating the climate patterns timeline alongside my own timeline and retracing the mountains and snowpack that was encountered in previous years in hopes that it might give some kind of indication of what to expect this winter.
The last strong El Niño event that first came to mind ended in 2016 which was, unfortunately, one of the shallower snow packs and warmer winters I can remember which came with challenges and frustrations for backcountry enthusiasts.
I will be headed into the backcountry regardless, but depending on what the weather brings dictates what mountains I will be choosing to head into this winter. With an El Niño, we may very well see a warmer winter with unpredictable precipitation. This could leave a lot of the coastal mountains without snow at their low elevations; warmer temperatures invite rain and meanwhile interior mountains with not enough precipitation for a rideable snowpack. Less frequent storms are a possibility, which can leave areas like Anchorage’s “front range,” which regularly receives less snow and high winds, unsuitable for skiing.
For backcountry users, the question isn’t just how much snow we will receive, but also, how will the weather pattern affect the risk of avalanches? Less snow can also leave instability in the snowpack that causes avalanches for longer periods of time. Warm storms can be dangerous or could be a good thing for the safety of the snowpack, but it varies a lot. Heavy snow can heal unstable layers or shed off unsafe slopes but leave ice and rain layers to be buried again by the next storm. The avalanche forecasters at the Turnagain Pass, Hatcher Pass, and Valdez avalanche centers do a great job of breaking down the different hazards in the snowpack and tracking it through the season.
The amount of snow we get is only a tiny factor to consider. So many variations can occur in every storm depending on what mountain range it hits —the temperature, the wind, the intensity, and the amount of time during and after. With such uncertainty on what lies ahead, tracking the weather and snowpack for each specific region we plan to recreate is key.
Then there are the roads, the first hurdle in accessing the mountains. Driving the Seward Highway is a bad idea with bald tires. There will be ice this winter, and when it rains, that highway is deadly. If we get a heavy wet storm that dumps a lot of snow at higher elevations, there is a good chance of the road being closed because of avalanches.
During what may very well be a warm, wet winter, it’s a good idea to keep an eye on the weather and the avalanche forecast. Watch the weather and snow report for what elevation it might be raining or how the new storm might be changing the snowpack. If it is raining at the bottom, it is probably snowing at the top.
Be prepared for rain to cover the roads in sheets of ice and outfit your vehicle with appropriate tires, a shovel, and a tow strap. Pick up some skin wax at your local shop to avoid the frustration of snow sticking to your skins and consider investing in some high-quality hard shell layers to stay dry, they will be worth it.
How else might we prepare ourselves for the winter and what can we expect? Truth is, we can never really know for sure, and that is kind of the beauty of it. It makes the good days, and years all that more special. While an El Niño winter could present its challenges, I have been surprised countless times in the past by good snow and great weather. The best we can do is be prepared for the worst and hope for the best, so wax your skis because it might snow a foot overnight.
