New polling ahead of the April 2 Anchorage mayoral race shows incumbent Mayor Dave Bronson continues to be deeply unpopular with Anchorage voters, and Suzanne LaFrance is in the best position to beat him.
The poll shows that 63% of Anchorage residents hold an unfavorable view of Bronson and 75% believe that the city is on the wrong track.
The poll was commissioned by 907 Initiative and conducted by Patinkin Research Strategies. It surveyed 400 registered voters in Anchorage who participated in recent city elections. It was conducted Feb. 22-26. 907 Initiative has conducted four polls in the past 18 months to measure residents’ opinions on the city and city leadership. Previous polls were conducted December 2022, March 2023, and October 2023.
Over that time, the surveys showed an increasing decline in opinion of Bronson, until a slight rebound in the February poll. The analysis found that self-described conservatives have shifted to a more favorable impression of Bronson in recent months. Additionally, Bronson is facing three credible challengers who all run more progressive than he does. The three challengers are going after many of the same voters, giving Bronson a huge advantage.
According to the poll, the most likely outcome is LaFrance winning the office in a runoff against Bronson. While Bronson is leading the pack with 35% voter support, that is not enough to surpass the 45% plus 1 threshold to win in the regular election.
“He will be in a runoff with Suzanne LaFrance and I suspect it’s going to be a landslide, and it’s not going to be for Bronson,” said political consultant Jim Lottsfeldt.
In addition to Bronson and LaFrance, the poll surveyed opinion on former Anchorage Economic Development Corp. president and CEO Bill Popp, and former Democratic House Majority Leader Chris Tuck.
Despite the favorable scenario and the slight rebound in favorability, Bronson remains deeply unpopular, with 49% of respondents rating him as unfavorable — by far the worst among the field — and a 34% favorable rating. LaFrance has a 27% favorable rating and 25% unfavorable rating; Popp has a 19% favorable rating and 23% unfavorable rating, and Tuck has a 22% favorable rating and 16% unfavorable rating.
Polls in October and February asked respondents who they would vote for if the election was that day, and the results indicate campaigning has not helped Popp or Tuck. Popp’s support has stayed steady at 15%, while Tuck’s dropped from 14% to 9%. Fifteen percent of respondents were undecided on who they would vote for.
The dynamics mirror the 2021 election where Bronson ran against current state senator Forrest Dunbar, attorney William Falsey, and current Anchorage Assembly member George Martinez. Bronson and Dunbar advanced to a runoff where Bronson won by less than two percentage points.
Lottsfeldt said this time, Bronson isn’t running as a new face promising change. Voters know what they’ll get in a second term.
“Everyone in Anchorage knows Bronson, but two-thirds of the electorate doesn’t want Bronson,” he said. “The amount of incompetence is stupefying and this time, that’s what voters have to decide between.”
LaFrance is likely to absorb the vast majority of Popp and Tuck’s support and has a good shot at winning over a majority of the undecideds. While just 8% of respondents had no opinion or had not heard of Bronson, 33% had no opinion or had not heard of LaFrance. That figure is 52% for Popp and 42% for Tuck, but only LaFrance has the money to get her name and message out to voters before April 2.
In the February filing deadline, the LaFrance campaign led the field in fundraising with $291,819. The Bronson campaign brought in $187,346, the Tuck campaign $93,881 and the Popp campaign $65,495.
“Neither Tuck nor Popp look like they have enough gas in their tank to increase their share,” Lottsfeldt said. “In the latest campaign reports, Tuck had $4,000 cash on hand to spend, Popp had $13,000 and Suzanne had $122,000. It’s a striking imbalance with who has the most robust campaign moving forward with fundraising, staff and enthusiasm,” Lottsfeldt said.
