Tuesday, November 19, 2024

Progressive challengers lead in key Anchorage-area legislative races

Progressive candidates hold big fundraising leads in several key legislative races on this year’s ballot, including several rematches of races narrowly lost to Republicans in 2022.

According to campaign disclosure reports due 30 days before the Aug. 20 primary, eight of the top ten legislative fundraisers are either Democrats or Democrat-aligned independents. Several have raised more than ten times their Republican challengers.

With the Alaska House narrowly divided, a single seat could make all the difference when legislators organize next year. Republicans currently hold the House in a coalition with rural legislators, an organization that has empowered conservatives and given a platform to culture war issues such as restricting the participation of trans youth in organized sports, a Don’t Say Gay-style bill and abortion bans.

The Republican-led House also played a pivotal role in upholding Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy’s veto of a broadly popular education funding bill.

Those hoping to flip the House will find plenty of positive news in the financial reports.

Anchorage Democrat Denny Wells is seen as having the best shot of flipping a seat from Republican to Democrat after coming within 10 votes of Republican Rep. Tom McKay in 2022, and the fundraising reflects this. To date, Wells has raised $137,816.77, a massive sum for a House race. Wells’ challenger, former Republican legislator and former Bronson administration official Mia Costello, has raised just $10,075.00.

McKay, who ran to the right after being elected, dropped out of what was widely considered to be a lost race to challenge Democratic Sen. Matt Claman. Claman is usually one of the Democrats’ strongest fundraisers and continues that trend this year with $144,082.55 raised to date. McKay, by comparison, has raised $19,336.40.

There are two other Anchorage legislative races that are being closely watched for potential flips by progressives.

That includes independent Walter Featherly, who has raised $112,215 for a rematch of his 112-vote loss to Hillside Republican Rep. Julie Coulombe. Coulombe, who is among several Anchorage Republicans with the ignoble distinction of upholding Gov. Mike Dunleavy’s veto of a landmark education funding bill, has raised $39,038.92.

The rematches continue in East Anchorage, where Democrat Ted Eischeid lost to Republican Rep. Stanley Wright by 72 votes in 2022. Eischeid raised $70,427.58 compared to Wright’s $7,252.00. Wright, unlike Coulombe and McKay, voted to override the governor’s veto of the education bill.  

Those aren’t the only rematches on this year’s ballot. Also in East Anchorage, former Republican Rep. David Nelson is challenging Democratic Rep. Cliff Groh. Groh beat Nelson by 77 votes in 2022. Unlike the other races, the incumbent has a major cash advantage in this race. Groh has raised $91,995.43 to date, while Nelson has raised just $6,175.00.

Up in Fairbanks, former Republican Rep. Bart LeBon is attempting to win back the seat he lost to Democratic Rep. Maxine Dibert by more than 500 votes in 2022. Dibert holds a sizable cash advantage with $71,134.48 to LeBon’s $31,766.78.

Outside of the rematches, numbers are looking good for Democrats and Democrat-aligned independents.

In Anchorage, Democratic Rep. Andy Josephson has raised $84,862.65, compared to Republican challenger Heather Gottshall’s $13,006.04. Independent Rep. Calvin Schrage, who served as leader of the House Bipartisan Coalition, has raised $62,032.87, compared to his challenger, Joseph Lurtsema’s $15,901.00.

In the open seat spanning from Fairbanks through most of the Interior to rural Alaska, which was held by moderate Republican Sen. Click Bishop, independent Savannah Fletcher has raised $29,346.31 to Tok Republican Rep. Mike Cronk’s $14,732.80 and Delta Junction Republican James Squyres’ $10,109.00.

There are a handful of bright spots for Republicans in this year’s fundraising report.

The top overall fundraiser is Fairbanks Republican candidate Leslie Hajdukovich, who has raised $162,661.06. Like many Republicans before Hajdukovich, she’s seen as the party’s best chance so far at unseating longtime Democratic Sen. Scott Kawasaki. Kawasaki is usually a middling fundraiser who makes up for it with strong constituent services and has, so far, fended off every Republican’s best chance at unseating him. He has raised $68,787.62.

In the open race for the seat held by independent Ketchikan Rep. Dan Ortiz, Republican candidate Jeremy Bynum has raised $55,512.60. His challengers, independents Agnes Moran and Grant EchoHawk, have raised $16,017.77 and $8,960.00, respectively.

Other notable contests include a handful of intraparty contests between moderate and conservative Republicans. Under the state’s adoption of open primaries and ranked-choice voting, the state has seen a renewed wave of moderate Republicans willing to buck the more odious parts of the party’s policies and have supported causes like increased funding for public schools, improved treatment of public employees and reproductive freedoms.  

On the Kenai, moderate, pro-public school Republican Nikiski Sen. Jesse Bjorkman holds a big fundraising lead over extreme-right Republican Rep. Ben Carpenter. Carpenter has been one of the House’s most conservative members — proposing a statewide sales tax to pay for a large corporate income tax cut — and has raised $27,397.66 to date. Bjorkman has raised more than twice that sum with $71,270.77. Other candidates, including a Democrat with ties to Republicans, in the race have not raised any money, according to the reports.

Right-wing Anchorage Rep. Craig Johnson — who served as the chair of the House Rules Committee and played a key role in how education legislation was treated this year and also helped block a bill to revive public pensions — lags behind moderate, pro-pension former Republican Rep. Chuck Kopp. Kopp has raised $21,332.00 to Johnson’s $13,612.61.

For the full reports, visit the Alaska Public Offices Commission website. We’ve also put together a handy chart that covers all the topline numbers from the 30-day reports here.

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Matt Acuña Buxton is a long-time political reporter who has written for the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner and The Midnight Sun political blog. He also authors the daily politics newsletter, The Alaska Memo, and can frequently be found live-tweeting public meetings on Twitter.

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