Twelve candidates — almost all Republicans — have dropped out of Alaska’s general election after securing spots through the state’s open primaries.
Monday afternoon marked the deadline for candidates to withdraw, finalizing the shape of the November elections. In most cases, the withdrawals represent a concerted effort by conservative Republicans to consolidate support in crucial legislative races against Democrats, independents and moderate Republicans.
Here are the races that were impacted:
Congress
The race for Alaska’s lone U.S. House seat has been settled after two Republicans — the Trump-endorsed Nancy Dahlstrom and Matthew Salisbury — dropped out, following calls to consolidate support behind the leading Republican candidate, Nick Begich III, in his third election against Democratic U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola.
This made way for space on the ballot for the fifth- and sixth-place candidates from the primary: the head of the Alaska Independent Party and a New Jersey Democrat serving a 20-year federal prison sentence for making threats. Those candidates would be John Wayne Howe and Eric Hafner. Together, the two won 1% of the primary election vote.
Peltola finished the primary election with 50.89% of the vote. Begich with 26.57%.
The Legislature
Four conservative candidates for the state Senate dropped out, leaving a single conservative Republican in races against a Democratic incumbent, an independent candidate and two moderate Republican incumbents.
The most notable races pit conservative Republicans against moderate Republican incumbents who are core members of the Senate’s bipartisan majority.
In Eagle River, Republicans Ken McCarty and Sharon Jackson — who finished in fourth and fifth place in the primary election — have dropped out to support Republican newcomer Jared Goecker against moderate Republican Sen. Kelly Merrick. Merrick won about 34% of the primary election vote, while Goecker won about 33%. If the support from McCarty and Jackson neatly aligns behind Goecker, it would put him over 50%. However, it’s worth noting that Eagle River conservatives tried consolidating against Merrick in 2022, just as they have now, and Merrick handily won the general election.
The other critical Senate race for conservatives is Kenai’s Senate District D, which moderate Republican Sen. Jesse Bjorkman currently holds. Alaska Independence Party candidate Andy Cizek withdrew, clearing the conservative side of the ticket for extreme-right Republican Rep. Ben Carpenter to try unseating Bjorkman. However, more will have to change for Carpenter to improve his chances of flipping the seat. That’s because Carpenter and Cizek’s share of the primary vote (43%) still lags behind Bjorkman’s 44.3% share. With Democrat Tina Wegner (who’s accused of being a right-wing plant) taking about 13% of the vote, things bode well for Bjorkman in the general.
The other withdrawals include Republican Rep. Tom McKay’s exit from Anchorage’s Senate H race, leaving incumbent Democratic Sen. Matt Claman in a head-to-head race against former Republican legislator Liz Vazquez. And in the massive Senate District R, which spans from Fairbanks to the Canada border, Republican Jim Squyres’ withdrawal leaves a three-way race between Tok Republican Rep. Mike Cronk, independent Savannah Fletcher and Alaska Independent Party candidate Bert Williams.
In the House, there are two headlining races that have featured withdrawals.
In South Anchorage’s House District 9, two Republicans have dropped out and endorsed opposing candidates. Republican businessman Lee Ellis (19.4%) withdrew to support independent candidate Ky Holland (42%), while Brandy Pennington (18%) dropped out to endorse Republican megadonor and Dunleavy booster Lucy Bauer (21%). Pennington said in a letter to supporters that she plans to work for Bauer if Bauer is elected. If Ellis’ support neatly aligns behind Holland, Holland would win with a commanding 60% of the vote, though it’s trickier to bank on cross-party ranking. Pennington and Bauer got just under 40% of the primary vote.
There’s also the race for the Kenai Peninsula’s House District 6, held by extreme-right Republican Rep. Sarah Vance. Vance was admonished this year after complaining about the lack of representation of white women in a hearing on Missing Murdered Indigenous Peoples. Independents hope to unseat her and have lined up behind independent candidate Brent Johnson, with fellow independent candidate Alana Greear’s decision to drop out on Monday and endorse Johnson. If her support neatly aligns behind Johnson, they would cross the 50% mark. The race is now down to Vance, Johnson and Republican candidate Dawson Slaughter, who received about 6% of the vote in the primary.
There’s also a Wasilla race that got a little less crowded. Moderate Wasilla Republican Rep. Jesse Sumner won in a crowded Republican field in 2022 and spent the next two years seeing much of his legislative efforts run headlong into legislative gridlock. He bowed out for personal reasons after winning this year’s primary with 33% of the vote. That leaves a three-way race between Republicans Steve Menard (27.6%), Elexie Moore (23%) and Jessica Wright (16%).
Finally, Republican Cole Snodgress withdrew from the crowded race for House District 36. That sets up a four-way race with Democrat Brandon Putuuqti Kowalski (34%), Republican Pamela Goode (14%), Republican Rebecca Schwanke (20.5%) and Libertarian James Fields (6.4%). Snodgress got about 14% of the vote.
Matt Acuña Buxton is a long-time political reporter who has written for the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner and The Midnight Sun political blog. He also authors the daily politics newsletter, The Alaska Memo, and can frequently be found live-tweeting public meetings on Twitter.
