The Alaska Division of Elections tallied a little more than 38,000 votes on Tuesday, bringing Republican congressional candidate Nick Begich a step closer to defeating Democratic U.S. Rep. Marty Peltola.
The results shrunk Begich’s lead slightly — from about a 10,000 votess to 9,500 votes — but the dwindling number of uncounted ballots makes Peltola’s path to a comeback steep.
She would need to win the remainder of uncounted ballots — estimated by the Alaska Beacon to be about 33,000 votes — by a 2-1 margin or win more than 80% of the second-place votes of Alaska Independence Party candidate John Wayne Howe and Democratic candidate Eric Hafner. If Begich’s share of the vote crosses the 50% mark, he will win the race outright without ranked-choice voting coming into play. He currently has 49.1%.
Republicans are already expected to maintain control of the U.S. House, delivering Republicans a trifecta after winning the White House and Senate.
Meanwhile, the fate of Alaska’s open primary and ranked-choice voting system still remains too close to call. The “yes” side of Ballot Measure 2 is still leading, but the lead has shrunk from about 4,200 votes to about 2,800. That amounts to a 1% margin.
The next expected release date of new vote tallies is Friday, Nov. 15, and Wednesday, Nov. 20, which is the last day for overseas ballots to arrive. Officials aim to cerifty the election on Nov. 30.
In the race for the Alaska Legislature, the bipartisan coalitions announced last week in the House and Senate have held after most bipartisan-minded candidates increased their margins in the latest vote tally.
In Fairbanks, Democratic Sen. Scott Kawasaki increased his lead to 351 votes over Republican candidate Leslie Hajdukovich (51.4-48.32). The race was one of the most watched of the election cycle with Republicans pinning their hopes — and political contributions — on Hajdukovich finally breaking Kawasaki’s nearly two-decade hold on legislative office.
Hajdukovich brought in a near-record amount of fundraising for a legislative candidate with more than $215,000.
In Anchorage, Democrat Ted Eischeid increased his lead over Republican Rep. Stanley Wright (52.06-47.73).
The lone race to move in the opposite direction was the race between Anchorage Democratic Rep. Cliff Groh and Republican David Nelson. His 28-vote lead from election night has dwindled to 19 votes afrter about 500 new votes were counted in the race.
Several other races will have to wait until ranked-choice tabulations are conducted later this month, but bipartisan-minded legislators appear to hold strong advantages in nearly every one of those contests.
Matt Acuña Buxton is a long-time political reporter who has written for the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner and The Midnight Sun political blog. He also authors the daily politics newsletter, The Alaska Memo, and can frequently be found live-tweeting public meetings on Twitter.
