If rumors that Trump is soon planning a mass layoff of federal employees are true — a claim bolstered by the administration’s efforts to document new hires — Alaska could be in for a rude awakening.
That’s because an outsized chunk of Alaska’s economy, specifically the new dollars coming into the state, comes through federal spending on everything from grants and infrastructure spending to salaries. Both economists and the union representing federal employees in Alaska have warned layoffs could have dire consequences.
David Traver, chief steward for AFGE local 3028, told legislators earlier this week that he was concerned about the real-world impacts of Trump’s lofty claims of a smaller federal workforce. He noted that it’s unlikely they’ll achieve their goals through voluntary resignations — a whole ball of worms that labor leaders warn has no guarantees — and they’ll turn to newer hires with fewer legal protections. He said the impact on services, especially at the Department of Veterans Affairs, could be severe.
He told the committee that of the nearly 12,000 federal employees in Alaska, 1,198 have worked for the federal government for less than a year and are on probationary status. About a quarter of those on probation, he said, are veterans.
“What’s happening is chilling. It’s just chilling folks,” he told the committee, later adding that the probationary employees earn more than $88 million in wages.
While some conservative Republicans sought to downplay the widespread impact of the cuts, with Anchorage Republican Rep. Mia Costello wondering if there was a way to simply hold veterans harmless, Traver said it’s impossible to guarantee that with so much uncertainty.
“I don’t know if the answer could be yes,” he said.
It’s unclear what the timing might be on the firings, but agencies reportedly had until noon today to tell the Trump administration who’s on probation and whether they should be kept. According to reporting by the Federal News Network, managers were given a 200-character limit to explain why an employee should be kept. Insiders say the plan would decimate the federal government’s services across the board.
“How long have we been talking about not having enough young employees or employees at the early career stage? Any gains we’ve made over the last few years will be wiped out,” a source told the outlet. “And why would anyone new come in now? This will have an awful chilling effect.”
Also on Tuesday, Marisa Kabas, the reporter who initially broke the story on the OMB memo ordering a freeze of federal grants, reported that efforts are underway for a mass firing.
The potential loss of jobs and wages was bad news for economists who have been studying Alaska’s slow economic recovery.
“You know, The federal government is our No. 1 industry,” said Neal Fried, a retired state labor economist, told Alaska Public Media. “We should be watching this really closely. And it’s kind of like, I suspect, the way people in Detroit watch what’s happening in the auto industry.”
Matt Acuña Buxton is a long-time political reporter who has written for the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner and The Midnight Sun political blog. He also authors the daily politics newsletter, The Alaska Memo, and can frequently be found live-tweeting public meetings on Bluesky.
