Tuesday, June 17, 2025

The Alaska Governor’s Race Power Rankings: Four Score

While the Alaska Democratic Party doesn’t yet have a candidate in the race for governor, Republicans last week continued to expand their field with the entrance of Mat-Su Borough Mayor Edna DeVries.

DeVries, 83, has an extensive political career in the Mat-Su, where she was a longtime Palmer city council member and mayor before winning the borough-wide office in 2021. She’s the fourth Republican to file to begin fundraising and campaigning to run for an open governor’s seat in 2026, when Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy will hit his term limit.

“I am the one candidate with proven leadership,” she said in a message sent out to a Mat-Su conservative group. “Listening to people, caring for people and acting -Mat Su is setting standard for the state of Alaska to follow. Appreciate your prayers and thoughts. Blessings.”

If she wins, she’ll be 85 by the time she takes office.

Also in the race are the moderate, pro-labor Click Bishop, conservative activist and former talk radio personality Bernadette Wilson and conservative Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom.

While names like former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola and Attorney General Treg “Corporate-paid Travel is the Best Kind of Travel for Someone Charged with Upholding the Law” Taylor have been floated as serious contenders for the office, let’s examine who is officially in the race and rank them based on our Votable Index Based Entirely on Science (VIBES) analysis of their ability to win in 2026.

Let’s take a look at our updated VIBES power ranking as of May 14, 2025. Past ranking here.

1. Click Bishop

Sen. Click Bishop.

Pros: Moderate, labor-friendly Republican that Democrats could live with, meaning that he can capitalize on the political center. His running mate will be a particularly interesting signal of what kind of campaign he’s running.

Cons: Largely reviled by the Alaska Republican Party machine for being a moderate, labor-friendly Republican that Democrats can live with.

2. Edna DeVries

Mat-Su Borough Mayor Edna DeVries

Pros: Has won a bunch of races in Mat-Su and Palmer, and is reasonably well respected in conservative circles.

Cons: While the Mat-Su is an important voting bloc, it won’t carry you to statewide office. Will be 85 by the time she’s sworn in.

3. Bernadette Wilson

Bernadette Wilson. (Wilson Campaign photo)

Pros: An ultra-MAGA mudslinger who understands that grievance and alternate facts go a long way in today’s modern political world.

Cons: Alaska’s modern political world also now votes with ranked-choice voting, so appealing to extremes doesn’t get the same mileage it used to.

4. Nancy Dahlstrom

Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom.

Pros: Has been endorsed by Trump.

Cons: The Trump endorsement didn’t go very far, and she dropped out of the race after a poor showing in the primary election, clearing the way for Nick Begich to beat Democratic U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola. Also, Dunleavy didn’t get a job in the Trump administration, so Dahlstrom never got her rumored step-up.

+ posts

Matt Acuña Buxton is a long-time political reporter who has written for the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner and The Midnight Sun political blog. He also authors the daily politics newsletter, The Alaska Memo, and can frequently be found live-tweeting public meetings on Bluesky.

RELATED STORIES

TRENDING