Democrats could win the race for Alaska’s governor in 2026, even if they’re not running one of the state’s most-liked politicians in former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola.
The results come from an Alaska Survey Research poll that included a ranked-choice voting simulation of the race, finding that Anchorage Democrat Tom Begich would narrowly win in a four-way race against the top three leading Republicans who’ve filed to run.
It also comes on the heels of a poll by Data for Progress that found Peltola, who has entertained running for office in 2026 but hasn’t made anything official, could be well-positioned to win the race for governor or the U.S. Senate race against GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan.
Alaska Survey Research head Ivan Moore said on Bluesky the polling included Begich, moderate Fairbanks Republican former state senator Click Bishop, Republican Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom and conservative organizer and former radio personality Bernadette Wilson because they were the top four finishers in a prior survey.
Here’s how the rounds would play out, according to the survey’s results:
Round 1
- Tom Begich (D) 41.4%
- Click Bishop (R) 20.1%
- Nancy Dahlstrom (R) 19.3%
- Bernadette Wilson (R) 19.2%
Result: Wilson eliminated
Round 2
- Tom Begich (D) 43.7%
- Nancy Dahlstrom (R) 30.1%
- Click Bishop (R) 26.2%
Result: Bishop eliminated
Final Round
- Tom Begich (D) 50.6%
- Nancy Dahlstrom (R) 49.4%
Result: Begich wins
Why it matters
The poll offers some early insight into what is shaping up to be a particularly hectic race to be Alaska’s next governor. More than a dozen Republicans — including three members of conservative Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy’s administration — have filed to begin campaigning for the office, while Democrats and independents have been largely waiting in the wings.
In large part that’s because everyone’s waiting to see what, if anything, Peltola will do in 2026. After soaring to the U.S. House in 2022, she’s been one of the most steadfastly popular politicians in the state.
Even Begich, who has begun campaigning in earnest, has indicated that he would step aside if Peltola were to get into the race.
About ranked choice voting
Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system — adopted in 2020 and first implemented in the 2022 elections — has transformed all state races into an open primary system, where the top four vote-getters advance to the general election.
That allows multiple candidates from the same political party to advance to the general election, which backers say gives voters more and better options for who represents them (often, it has meant moderate Republicans have had more success).
And to avoid same-party spoilers, the general election uses ranked-choice voting, where voters rank candidates in order of preference.
Those rankings only matter if no candidate reaches the 50% threshold in the first round of voting. If no candidate has a majority, the lowest-performing candidate is eliminated, and their votes are redistributed according to their rankings, continuing until there’s a winner.