Former Democratic U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola announced her plans to challenge right-wing Republican U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan this week, and polling suggests she has a slight edge heading into the high-stakes campaign.
Peltola has a 1.6-point lead over Sullivan — 48% to 46.4% and 5.6% undecided — in polling released this week by Alaska Survey Research, a state-based firm that conducts regular tracking polls on a variety of issues in the state. The latest poll is based on a survey of 2,132 Alaskans conducted between Jan. 8 and 11, which closed the day before Peltola made her announcement, and has a margin of error of +/- 2.0%.
PDF: Alaska Survey Research winter survey report
The polling generally aligns with the firm’s previous findings, which have suggested that Sullivan could be vulnerable in a race against Peltola, largely due to his slumping popularity ratings.
Despite his efforts to spin the Trump presidency as a non-stop set of wins for the state, Sullivan’s popularity has slid along with every other statewide Republican and currently stands at -10. According to the poll, 50.6% of respondents held a negative view of the Republican, while just 39.3% held a positive view.
His job rating approval was similarly bleak, with just 36% of respondents approving of the job he’s been doing. Meanwhile, 44.6% were opposed and about 20% were unsure.
While Peltola, who was the first Alaska Native politician elected to Congress in 2022, remains highly popular overall, Alaska Survey Research head Ivan Moore noted that she has also seen a recent polling slide.
Her popularity currently sits at +6, with 46.3% of Alaskans holding a positive view of the Democrat and 40.8% holding a negative view. Moore said that’s the worst rating she’s received in polling since she made her debut in 2022. After her election to Congress, she hit her highest approval rating of 57% in 2023 before slipping into the low 50s in 2024.
Still, he said that her slide in popularity has been slower than Sullivan’s.
“Sullivan’s been sucking wind too,” he said.
Looking ahead to the 2026 campaign, he also noted potential problem spots for Peltola, including polling showing that about a third of Alaska Native voters and a third of rural voters hold a negative view of her. Those overlapping groups hold considerable sway in elections and have traditionally leaned heavily toward Democrats, but Trump made considerable inroads with rural Alaska communities during the 2024 election.
Moore stressed that the latest poll was conducted entirely before Peltola announced her campaign, and that the standings will likely change as the campaigns get underway in earnest.
Still, Peltola’s entrance into the race has given Democrats a jolt of optimism that they could take the U.S. Senate in the 2026 elections.
Matt Acuña Buxton is a long-time political reporter who has written for the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner and The Midnight Sun political blog. He also authors the daily politics newsletter, The Alaska Memo, and can frequently be found live-tweeting public meetings on Bluesky.
