Saturday, November 23, 2024

What to watch for in Anchorage’s mayoral runoff

Anchorage’s mayoral race once again comes down to a runoff election.

Three years after far-right Mayor Dave Bronson won in a runoff election, today he will be facing off against moderate former Anchorage Assembly chair Suzanne LaFrance in another. Polls close tonight at 8 p.m. with preliminary results expected shortly after that.

If you haven’t returned your ballot, there are drop boxes located throughout the city. Ballots sent via the mail need to be postmarked today, which means dropping them in the mailbox risks it not getting postmarked. It’s safer to have it hand-stamped at the post office or, better yet, use the drop boxes. If you’ve lost your ballot, the city also has in-person voting centers:

  • City Hall | 632 West 6th Avenue, Room #105
    Election Day, May 14, 7:00 a.m. – 8:00 p.m.
    All Municipal ballots will be available at this location.
     
  • Eagle River Town Center | 12001 Business Boulevard, Community Room #170
    Election Day, April 2, 7:00 a.m. – 8:00 p.m..
    Only Chugiak-Eagle River ballots will be available at this location.
     
  • Loussac Library | 3600 Denali Street, First Floor
    Election Day, April 2, 7:00 a.m. – 8:00 p.m.
    All Municipal ballots will be available at this location.

Initial results are expected to be released around 8:30 p.m. with additional updates over the following days.

Here’s what to know about the race and what to watch for.

Initial results, especially in a close election, can be deceiving. In 2021, we saw that in the runoff election between Bronson and now-Sen. Forrest Dunbar. While Dunbar opened initial results on election night in 2021 with a small lead over Bronson — about 100 votes — that advantage vanished with later reports.

Bronson ended up winning by about 1,193 votes.

However, there are some major differences between 2021 and now.

In 2021, Bronson finished first in a crowded pack in the general election. This year, LaFrance outpaced Bronson, finishing first in a less crowded field. Importantly, there weren’t any major hard-right conservatives in the field. That said, like Dunbar, LaFrance saw her lead diminish from the initial to the final results in the general election, but by far less than in 2021, going from a lead of about 600 to a lead of about 500.

Turnout also appears to be on pace to lag the 2021 election. The city reported that as of Monday, it had received 54,530​ total ballots. Three years ago, that number sat at nearly 80,000.

But perhaps the biggest difference is that Bronson is no longer a relative unknown. His time in office has been marred by controversy, allegations of ethical violations and poorly plowed roads. Rather than point to accomplishments during his time in office, his closing message has largely revolved around painting LaFrance as a “woke” liberal who would work with the Anchorage Assembly rather than constantly feuding with it.

Stay tuned!

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Matt Acuña Buxton is a long-time political reporter who has written for the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner and The Midnight Sun political blog. He also authors the daily politics newsletter, The Alaska Memo, and can frequently be found live-tweeting public meetings on Twitter.

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