Ballot Measure 2, the initiative seeking to repeal Alaska’s open primary and ranked-choice voting system, has failed.
With the state finishing its tally of ballots this afternoon, the measure failed by a razor-thin 664 votes out of more than 320,000 cast on the issue. Today was the final day for overseas ballots to arrive for counting, and the election is set to be certified on Nov. 30.
A recount can be requested, but it’s unlikely to shift the results enough to flip them. That means the system that has allowed more moderate candidates to run and win in the 49th state will remain.
“Once again, voters made their voices heard and, once again, voters approved open primaries and ranked-choice voting, a system that honors Alaskans’ independence and rewards elected leaders who work together to address the challenges that face our state,” said No on 2 Executive Director Juli Lucky and Campaign Chair Lesil McGuire in a joint statement. “This is truly a win by Alaskans, for Alaskans, which will benefit our state for generations to come.”
Given that the bipartisan majorities in the House and Senate can credit their majorities to the system, there will be no appetite for a legislative repeal. Critically, that means Alaska’s 2026 gubernatorial election — which is already drawing rumored interest from many tickets — will be held under the election system.
Under Alaska’s system, which was approved by voters in 2020, candidates run in open primaries where the top four candidates advance to the general election regardless of political affiliation. The ranked-choice voting element essentially serves as an instant run-off, allowing voters to express their second and third-choice preferences if no candidate wins an outright majority.
Those rankings also allow multiple candidates from the same party to run in the general election without the fear of automatically playing spoiler to each other.
Over the last two regular election cycles conducted under the system, that has set up several Republican versus Republican contests, reflecting the varied internal politics of the party. And when given the choice, voters have generally opted for the more moderate candidates who are less beholden to the party.
That’s infuriated far-right Republicans who once enjoyed much easier paths to office through the semi-closed partisan primaries of the past. In many safely Republican districts, the primary elections were the only real hurdle to elected office.
Two of the Legislature’s most extreme legislators began spreading election conspiracy theories on Monday afternoon, when Ballot Measure 2 started to fall behind in the vote tally, claiming that the ballot measure was passing because of “illegal aliens” or unidentified hackers. No proof was given.
The claims were met pretty broadly with derision, with several pointing out that the hackers must have forgotten to fix the race for Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris and U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola, whose loss was cemented on Wednesday night’s ranked-choice voting tabulation.
After the third- and fourth-place candidates were eliminated from that race, Republican Nick Begich had secured an outright majority of 51.31% of the vote to Peltola’s 48.69%.
Down the ballot, the ranked-choice tabulation largely cemented the leads that candidates held coming into the day. However, the final tally did reverse the standings in a head-to-head race between Democratic Rep. Cliff Groh and Republican former Rep. David Nelson. After holding a narrow lead throughout the race, Groh now trails Nelson by 23 votes. A recount is expected.
Here are the outcomes from today’s RCV tabulations:
- Moderate Nikiski Republican Sen. Jesse Bjorkman, a key member of the Senate bipartisan coalition, beat extreme-right Rep. Ben Carpenter 57.71% to 45.29% after Democrat Tina Wegener was eliminated.
- Conservative Republican Sen. James Kaufman beat Democratic candidate Janice Park 52.81% to 47.19% after Republican Harold Borbridge was eliminated.
- Moderate Eagle River Republican Sen. Kelly Merrick, another key member of the Senate bipartisan coalition, won 55.48% to 44.52% after Democrat Lee Hammermeister was eliminated.
- Extreme-right Homer Republican Rep. Sarah Vance survives a challenge by independent Brent Johnson 52.25-47.75 after Republican Dawson Slaughter was eliminated.
- Wasilla Republican Elexie Moore beat Republican Steve Menard by just 13 votes in a hotly contested race to fill a seat vacated by Republican Rep. Jesse Sumner after Republican Jessica Wright was eliminated.
- In the rangy Interior district formerly held by Tok Republican Rep. Mike Cronk (who moved up to the Senate), Republican Rebecca Schwanke was able to consolidate the vote from several Republicans to defeat Democrat Brandon Kowalski 56.6% to 43.4%.
- Incumbent Democratic Rep. CJ McCormick lost by about 60 votes to Democratic candidate Nellie Jimmie after two other candidates were eliminated. She wins with 51.04% to his 48.96%.
- Republican-turned-independent Rep. Thomas Baker, a Dunleavy appointee who frequently broke with fellow rural legislators, was eliminated in the first round of voting for the House District 40 seat. Democrat Robyn Burke won with 60.1% to Saima Chase’s 39.89%.
Matt Acuña Buxton is a long-time political reporter who has written for the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner and The Midnight Sun political blog. He also authors the daily politics newsletter, The Alaska Memo, and can frequently be found live-tweeting public meetings on Twitter.
