Friday, March 6, 2026

The Alaska Governor’s Race Power Rankings: A Begich Appears

The latest update on the VIBES of the governor's race.

This is not a drill. A Begich has joined the race for Alaska’s next governor. I repeat, a Begich has joined the race for governor.

The race for governor grew to nine on Monday with the entrance of the first Democrat, former Anchorage state Sen. Tom Begich. Begich, whose time as Senate Minority leader saw him forge a working relationship with moderate Republicans, says he’s joined the race because of what he’s seen as stagnation in the state.

A wild Begich appears

“I felt Alaska’s sort of stagnated over the last few years — hasn’t moved forward,” he told the Alaska Beacon. “And partially that’s because there’s a lack of communication between the Legislature and the governor, the governor and the Legislature. That leads to a breakdown in decision-making.”

Begich is the brother of former U.S. Sen. Mark Begich and uncle to U.S. Rep. Nick Begich III.

But the hurdles to adding governor to the Begich family’s collection of elected offices aren’t just the eight Republicans who are currently filed to run for the seat, but the potential political aspirations of the state’s highest-profile Democrat: Former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola.

If Peltola gets in, Begich told Alaska Public Media, he’ll get out.

“I’ve always told her, and I would say this to you: if she were to get in this race, I wouldn’t need to be in this race. She would be in the race,” he said. “But I am in the race, and that is the difference.”

Still, if elected governor, Begich said he wants to see progress on issues like education funding, education policy and a fiscal plan that will finally balance out the state’s structural budget deficit left in the wake of a decade-old collapse in oil prices. He has suggested openness to cutting tax credits that go to the oil and gas industry and implementing higher corporate taxes.

Having served as the Senate Minority leader from 2019 to 2022, Begich had a front-row seat to see just how important building bipartisan bridges can be. He forged a strong working relationship with then-Senate Majority Leader Cathy Giessel, who was facing her own internal revolt of right-wing Republicans, to steer policies more toward the center.

His signature legislative accomplishment was forging a path for the Alaska Reads Act, a measure aiming to boost reading among younger Alaskans. The measure cleared the Legislature and Gov. Mike Dunleavy without a veto, a near-unthinkable feat in today’s relationship between the executive and legislative branches.

However, not everyone was thrilled with the Alaska Reads Act, particularly with how it would interface with more resource-strapped rural school districts, and it ultimately passed over the objections of many House Democrats.

State of the race

Begich is the first Democrat in the race, with the big caveat that he’s out if Peltola gets in. Still, in a political climate where voters are increasingly sick of Republicans and Trump, it gives him a boost, especially when he’s got an established track record of bipartisanship that could win over some moderates. He enters a race that includes eight Republicans, including moderate labor-friendly state Sen. Click Bishop, far-right state Sen. Shelley Hughes, former Revenue Commissioner Adam Crum and Mat-Su Borough Mayor Edna DeVries.

So, without further ado, let’s see how they all stack up according to our Votable Index Based Entirely on Science (VIBES) analysis of their ability to win in 2026.

1. Click Bishop

Sen. Click Bishop.

Pros: Moderate, labor-friendly Republican that Democrats could live with.

Cons: Reviled by the Alaska Republican Party for being a moderate, labor-friendly Republican that Democrats can live with.

2. Tom Begich

Tom Begich

Pros: A Begich and the only Democrat in the race.

Cons: A Begich and the only Democrat in the race.

3. Adam Crum

Adam Crum

Pros: The oil industry has a lot of money.

Cons: May or may not have done something untoward to benefit the oil industry.

4. Shelley Hughes

Sen. Shelley Hughes.

Pros: A forerunner in anti-trans panic who’s likely to be fomenting fear of whoever’s next.

Cons: Too conservative for a lot of normie Republicans.

5. Edna DeVries

Mat-Su Borough Mayor Edna DeVries

Pros: Has a lot of experience.

Cons: She’ll be 85 by the time she’s sworn in, a point that Republican media has seemed to fixate on following her filing, suggesting she doesn’t have the right blessings.

6. Bernadette Wilson

Bernadette Wilson. (Wilson Campaign photo)

Pros: An ultra-MAGA mudslinger who understands that grievance and alternate facts go a long way in today’s modern political world.

Cons: Alaska’s modern political world also now votes with ranked-choice voting, so appealing to extremes doesn’t get the same mileage it used to.

7. Matt Heilala

Matt Heilala for Governor

Pros: Has the outward appearance of competence that comes with being a doctor while also being a key figure in the right’s panic over trans kids.

Cons: So far, a one-note candidate who’s giving Bear Doctor vibes.

8. James William Parkin IV

Pros: He is ostensibly a working-class-focused guy with his support for bigger PFDs, funded schools and public employee pensions.

Cons: In an academic sense, the problem is how you pay for it all. In a political sense, he’s about as out of line with the party powers as Bishop is while lacking the folksy appeal.

9. Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom

Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom.

Pros: Currently shares a floor with the governor.

Cons: A good Republican soldier after she dipped out of the U.S. House race, clearing the way for U.S. Rep. Nick Begich to beat U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola, but who wants a quitter?

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Matt Acuña Buxton is a long-time political reporter who has written for the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner and The Midnight Sun political blog. He also authors the daily politics newsletter, The Alaska Memo, and can frequently be found live-tweeting public meetings on Bluesky.

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