Former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola hasn’t made anything official for the 2026 elections, but she has some good options.
According to a new round of polling by Data for Progress, a progressive-leaning polling firm and think tank, Peltola has a slight edge in both the race for U.S. Senate, where she would be in a head-to-head race with Republican U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan, and for the governor’s race, an open seat that has already attracted a dozen Republican hopefuls.
That, in large part, is because Peltola’s popularity has held steady while just about every other major politician in Alaska has seen their popularity slide since Trump took office.
“For the fourth consecutive time we find former Rep. Mary Peltola to be the most popular politician in Alaska,” the group said in a statement accompanying the results.
Peltola has a net approval rating of +7, with 51% of respondents holding a favorable opinion of the Democrat and 44% an unfavorable one. That puts her on the best footing of any politician covered by the poll, including Trump (0), JD Vance (-3), Gov. Mike Dunleavy (-13), U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (-23), U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan (-1) and U.S. Rep. Nick Begich (+2).
The poll was conducted from Oct. 17 to 23 and contacted 823 likely voters. Its self-reported margin of error is ± 3%.
In hypothetical races against Sullivan, Peltola leads 46-45 with likely voters. In the much more crowded race for governor, Peltola would be expected to get about 41% of the vote in a primary, with the next-closest finisher, Republican Bernadette Wilson, at just 10%. Under the group’s simulation of ranked-choice voting, Peltola would be expected to win the race outright in the first round with 51%.
While Peltola has indicated interest in running in 2026, she has yet to announce what office she might seek. And as Republicans continue to build on their fundraising leads, the delay has been met with some consternation.
“Once again, it’s been 0 days since I wondered to myself what’s taking Mary Peltola so long to make up her mind,” wrote Alaska pollster Ivan Moore, whose recent polling also agrees that Peltola’s popularity puts her in a good position for a run, on Bluesky.
According to Moore’s polling, Peltola’s strong position is in large part thanks to unified support among Democrats (she gets 97% of Democrats, while Sullivan gets 87% of Republicans) and a strong edge with moderate voters (where she gets 58% of the vote).
All the rest
In the not-so-hypothetical race between Republican U.S. Rep. Nick Begich and recently announced Democratic candidate Rev. Matt Schultz, Begich holds a significant lead, with the major caveat that Schultz is starting out from scratch, with 81% of respondents saying they haven’t heard enough about him to form an opinion.
Still, in that race, Begich would get about 48% of the vote to Schultz’s 37%.
Alaskans say the economy, jobs, and inflation are the most important issues to them, with most respondents reporting higher grocery, utility, and gasoline costs over the last year. People also reported having higher anxiety around expenses in the next year, particularly when it comes to food. Across the board, very few respondents said things have gotten cheaper in the last year.
It also ran down some of the big policy issues in the last year, finding that a majority of Alaskans want to see the health insurance subsidies that Democrats are fighting for in the shutdown negotiations to continue (63% to 25%), still support Medicaid expansion (69% to 29%) and most don’t support Trump’s One Big Beauitful Bill (42% for, 47% against).
Looking ahead to the 2026 elections, Data for Progress says that cost-of-living should be a focus for progressive politicians.
“Together, these results indicate that at this moment in time, Alaska’s 2026 races are again shaping up to be centered on the cost of living,” the conclusion explained. “As Alaska voters continue to struggle with affording basic necessities, the recent federal cuts to health care funding are likely to be unpopular with Alaskans, pushing their health care costs up even further. With the races for governor, Senate, and House of Representatives potentially up for grabs, Republican control over Alaska’s statewide positions could be in jeopardy next year.”
The poll, in full
Matt Acuña Buxton is a long-time political reporter who has written for the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner and The Midnight Sun political blog. He also authors the daily politics newsletter, The Alaska Memo, and can frequently be found live-tweeting public meetings on Bluesky.
