Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) was easily reelected to office with 50.3% of the vote, enough to make Dunleavy the only statewide candidate who avoided triggering the ranked-choice voting tabulation. This came as a surprise given Rep. Peltola’s historic performance as a Democrat, and Murkowski’s comfortable win over a former Dunleavy appointee.
How did he manage to coast to reelection so easily? Comparing 2018’s results to 2022, Dunleavy was able to avoid a runoff due to a huge swing in support in the Bush. The data suggests a historically large PFD deposited about six weeks before the election had a big impact.
POLITICS IN THE BUSH
The “Bush” has conflicting definitions, but it often refers to remote communities in mostly Native-majority areas. These include the Aleutian Islands, Tyonek, Bristol Bay, Dillingham, Bethel, Kusilvak, the Northwest Arctic, the Arctic Slope, and the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta. All the communities in this region are off the road or ferry system and can usually only be reached by small bush airplanes. With some exceptions, Alaska Native people make up a majority of the population in Bush communities.
Contrary to popular belief, Alaska Native communities do not unanimously vote for Democrats or progressives. In fact, the Bush is one of the only places left in Alaska where voters routinely split their tickets for Republicans, Democrats, and Independents. The late Rep. Don Young was famous for staying competitive in the Bush against strong contenders, usually losing by fewer than five points or even winning it altogether.
In the 2022 midterms, the Bush flexed its idiosyncratic electoral habits by voting for Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola by 47 points, while giving Republican candidates for governor a near-majority of the vote.
THE BUSH SHIFTS RIGHT
In 2018, the Bush voted in a landslide for former U.S. Sen. Mark Begich (D) when he ran against Dunleavy for governor. Begich won 68% of the vote to Dunleavy’s 32%, beating him by 7,000 votes.
This year, Dunleavy racked up 43% of the vote in the Bush — an 11-point improvement. Republican gubernatorial candidate and former Kenai Peninsula Borough mayor CharliePierce (R) also received 5% of the vote, giving Republicans a combined 48% in the region — just 500 votes from winning it altogether.
This is the second cycle in a row that the Bush has uniformly shifted right in a statewide election. Between the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, it shifted ten points to the right even as most other areas in the state shifted left.
The same shift happened in the Senate race with Independent Al Gross vs. incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan. In 2014, Sullivan received just under 30% in the Bush. In 2020, he received 47.5% — a 17.5-point improvement.
As the map above shows, the Bush shifted a total of 30 points to the right between the 2018 and 2022 gubernatorial elections.
WHY DID THIS HAPPEN?
Pulling back the map and looking at the state as a whole, the Bush is one of the only areas in Alaska that gave Dunleavy a larger share of the vote than in 2018.
Dunleavy’s underperformance outside the Bush aligns with his unpopularity among both far right conservatives and moderate-to-progressive voters.
On the right, two challengers drew significant support from Republicans unhappy with unfulfilled promises about the PFD and fisheries management: Pierce won 10% of the vote on the Kenai Peninsula, and Wasilla Rep. Christopher Kurka (R) won 10% in the Mat-Su in the August primary.
On the other side, former Gov. Bill Walker (I) and former state Rep. Les Gara (D) drew major support from moderate and progressives communities that felt abandoned by Dunleavy. Additionally, Anchorage, Fairbanks, and Southeast Alaska have continually shifted to the left over the past two decades, including in this year’s gubernatorial and U.S. House races.
What about the House Districts that shifted towards Dunleavy? These include all of the Bush, Mountain View and North Muldoon in Anchorage, Kodiak, and the eastern rural Mat-Su/Valdez district.
- Except for the Mat-Su-Valdez, these districts have low median household incomes and
- These districts have chronically low turnout in elections (excluding Kodiak and Mat-Su/Valdez)
- Both Anchorage districts are diverse, and working class
- Two races — North Muldoon and a Bush district stretching from Nome down through Kusilvak — saw very close State House races where the PFD was a top issue
ELECTORAL TAKEAWAYS
These patterns suggest that this year’s large Dividend was a major contributing factor in the Bush’s swing towards Dunleavy. It seems that communities that disproportionately rely on the Dividend as a part of their yearly income unanimously swung to the right in the governor’s race. That also means the shift could be temporary.
Other factors may have contributed to the collapse of progressive and moderate support in the Bush. Neither Gara or Walker were able to consolidate support in the Bush. It’s possible a fractured opposition benefitted Dunleavy.
What we do know is that the Bush single-handedly pushed Dunleavy past the 50% threshold to avoid triggering the ranked choice tabulation. Had the Bush voted for Walker/Gara by the same margin it voted for Begich in 2018, Dunleavy would have finished with 48%-49% of the vote.
Though it wouldn’t have changed the outcome, the swing to the right in the Bush boosted Dunleavy by an extra two points. The same historic swing for Peltola helped push her to 48%, the best a Democrat has done since Gov. Tony Knowles’ re-election in 1998.
The takeaway? The Bush proved to be a crucial swing vote this year. In Alaska’s increasingly closer elections and under the new RCV system, it could even make or break a candidate.
