A lot has happened since the last power rankings of the race for the next governor of Alaska.
The field has ballooned to 14 candidates with the entrance of Anchorage Democratic state Sen. Matt Claman, infighting has begun among the 12 Republican candidates and we got some much-needed clarity on the race’s landscape thanks to a new round of polling.
Let’s catch up on it all and break down what it all means about the most consequential race on the 2026 ballot.
Claman makes 14
Anchorage Democratic state Sen. Matt Claman, who represents West Anchorage, is one of the more moderate Democrats in the Alaska Senate. His opening message is that his time in the Senate makes him well-suited to work across the political spectrum.
“As Governor, I’ll work every day to ensure our state government reflects the values we all share: safe streets, great schools, business-friendly regulations, and a growing economy that works for businesses and working families,” he said in a statement. “Our state deserves a leader who listens to and works together with the people of Alaska, leads with care, upholds our constitution, and sets partisanship aside to deliver real results. That’s exactly what I’ve done in the Legislature and what I’ll do for you as your governor.”
He’s the second Democrat to enter the race after fellow Anchorage Democratic former state Sen. Tom Begich entered the race. Begich, who is more progressive than Claman, has indicated he would drop out if popular former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola entered the race.
Politics-wise, Claman has broken with more progressive members of his caucus on taxes and the dividend. While progressives argue that new revenue is needed to balance the state’s budget and protect, or even grow, the dividend, Claman has been firm that taxes shouldn’t go toward the payment. Instead, he said new revenue should go to services.
“I see this bill as an example of places where we are suggesting there will be taxes coming, and the purpose of those taxes will be primarily to pay a dividend,” he said in the lead-up to a 2023 vote. “I believe the majority of Alaskans are actually in a place where they don’t want to see new taxes, and they want to follow the constitutional direction of using public funds to pay for public safety, public education, public health and capital investment.”
Claman’s aversion to new revenue and taxes has held firm. Earlier this year, he expressed skepticism about a bill that would have increased corporate income taxes — opposition that, by most accounts, has led to the measure stalling out in the Senate — and he also opposed an Anchorage proposal to institute a city sales tax. He wrote that such a sales tax would only shift the tax burden around, while incurring a substantial cost to implement.
“Adding an inefficient, complicated sales tax to the existing property tax will force our city to hire more tax collectors to collect the new sales tax and leave less money to pay for police and snowplowing,” he wrote in a February op-ed published in the ADN. “It just grows our local government without providing essential services.”
As a sitting legislator, Claman will be barred from fundraising during the legislative session, which runs from Jan. 21 through May 20. Fellow legislator and gubernatorial candidate Sen. Shelley Hughes, a far-right Republican, will face the same restriction.
Wasilla Republican Sen. Mike Shower, who is gubernatorial candidate Bernadette Wilson’s running mate, resigned from the seat earlier this month.
Republican infighting
With less than a year before the 2026 elections, Republicans are already jockeying for position in the crowded field. Thanks to the state’s open primary election system, the top four candidates from the primary election, regardless of party, will advance to the general election. In Alaska, that’s typically resulted in multiple Republicans advancing to the general election with mixed success — some have tried to rally together around a common message, while others have turned to attacking each other.
At least for two candidates, it appears that violence is the approach.
Adam Crum, a former member of the Dunleavy administration, came out swinging against Treg Taylor, another former member of the Dunleavy administration, in a particularly pointed attack, claiming that the former attorney general was not pro-Trump enough.
“If you are willing to sit at the table with anti-Trump Republicans, you are sending a loud and clear message: you’re anti-Trump too,” Crum said in a news release calling on Taylor to cancel a fundraiser with other fellow attorneys general “who have worked against Trump’s agenda.”
The offending attorneys general? Bill Barr and Jeff Sessions, who both worked for Trump during his first term, before getting on the wrong side of Trump world.
In response, Taylor’s campaign told the Alaska Landmine that he is, in fact, very pro-Trump (true) and then went on to call into question Crum’s problematic tenure in the Dunleavy administration, which culminated with an unauthorized family vacation during the legislative session and a highly questionable decision to put $50 million of the state’s key savings account into risky private equity investments.
“Treg Taylor has proudly stood with President Trump and the America First agenda. As Attorney General, Treg went to war with the Biden administration and defended Alaska. Adam Crum’s desperate attacks are nothing more than an attempt to distract from his own mounting issues.”
But none of that might matter because…
Polling, polling, polling
Sure, there’s a lot that can and will change over the course of the next year to shake up the race, but right now things aren’t looking great for either Crum or Taylor. Neither candidate has had strong showings in recent polls, with Taylor’s support falling within the margin of error in a Data for Progress poll (which showed Peltola had the best shot of anyone). That poll found that Peltola had the best chance of winning in the crowded field, though it also showed she had a good shot against U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan.
None of the polling has included Claman yet, so we’re not sure where he stands.
But one of the better looks comes from Alaska Survey Research, which ran a simulated ranked-choice voting election in a recent poll. Alaska Survey Research head Ivan Moore said on Bluesky the polling included Begich, moderate Fairbanks Republican former state senator Click Bishop, Republican Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom and conservative organizer and former radio personality Bernadette Wilson because they were the top four finishers in a prior survey.
That polling suggested Begich could win that hypothetical race, in large part because he draws the support of about a third of hypothetical Bishop voters, pushing him over the 50% threshold.
So, without further ado, let’s see how everyone who’s officially in the race stacks up according to our Votable Index Based Entirely on Science (VIBES) analysis of their ability to win in 2026. Find our previous ranking here.
1. Tom Begich
Pros: A Begich and the first Democrat in the race.
Cons: Peltola’s entrance would bump him out of the race (and she’d get this spot)
2. Click Bishop
Pros: Moderate, labor-friendly Republican that Democrats could live with.
Cons: Reviled by the Alaska Republican Party for being a moderate, labor-friendly Republican that Democrats can live with. Also, when’s he gonna start campaigning?
3. Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom
Pros: As loath as we are to admit it, Dahlstrom’s current position as lieutenant governor probably puts her in a good position to become governor.
Cons: Hasn’t had a particularly inspiring political career, which includes resigning from the House before she could even take office for a spot in the Dunleavy administration and dropping out of the race for U.S. House to clear the way for U.S. Rep. Nick Begich.
4. Bernadette Wilson and Mike Shower
Pros: An ultra-MAGA mudslinger who understands that grievance and alternate facts go a long way in today’s modern political world.
Cons: Sen. Mike Shower — who’s one of the most chronically absent from the Capitol — is not bringing a whole lot to the ticket.
5. Matt Claman
Pros: About as moderate as you could be in Alaska politics.
Cons: About as moderate as you could be in Alaska politics.
6. Shelley Hughes
Pros: Has a finger on the pulse of whatever’s the latest Republican panic factory, whether it be trans kids in sports or trans kids in general.
Cons: Considers right-wing Anchorage Republicans too moderate for her.
7. Edna DeVries
Pros: Has a lot of experience.
Cons: She’ll be 85 by the time she’s sworn in, a point that Republican media has seemed to fixate on following her filing, suggesting she doesn’t have the right blessings.
8. Treggarick “Treg” Taylor
Pros: Did not resign for being a sex pest, as his two predecessors did.
Cons: An ultra-wealthy right-wing weirdo who’s more than happy to bend the rules of the law to fit his political needs. He also has no problem with using public school funding to pay for his children’s private and religious education, despite the Alaska Constitution prohibiting the use of public school money for such purposes.
9. Adam Crum
Pros: The oil industry has a lot of money, and Crum once appeared to be the chosen one.
Cons: May or may not have done something untoward to benefit the oil industry. Also, doesn’t seem to have the party’s blessing anymore.
10. Matt Heilala
Pros: He has a big RV plastered with his campaign logo, and he is also one of the leading forces of anti-trans panic in Alaska.
Cons: So far, a one-note candidate who’s giving Bear Doctor vibes.
11-13. The Other Guys: James William Parkin IV, Henry ‘Hank’ Kroll and Roger “Bruce” Walden
Pros: They’re coming into the race without the baggage of high-profile political careers.
Cons: They’re coming into the race without the baggage of high-profile political careers.
14. Dave Bronson
Pros: After quitting his job at the airport, he has the free time for new hobbies.
Cons: A deeply partisan nincompoop who demonstrated a frankly impressive ability to not get anything substantial done during the three years he was in office.