The filing period for Alaska’s statewide races closed on Monday, setting up an expansive, 17-candidate field for the state’s next governor — and there’s just about someone for everyone.
The filing deadline required candidates to pick their running mates, leading to a flurry of activity and announcements over the weekend. Once the dust was settled, the field is set to feature six all-Republican tickets, two all-Democrat tickets, four all-independent tickets and five more that are split tickets — three Republican-independent tickets, a Democrat-independent ticket and a Republican-Democrat ticket.
Candidates will have until the end of the month to drop out of the race or swap out their running mates.
Ahead of Monday’s filing deadline, Republican Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom dropped out of the race entirely. Dahlstrom, who also dropped out of the race for U.S. House to clear the way for Republican Nick Begich, started the year with poor fundraising numbers.
Under Alaska’s voting system, all 17 tickets will compete in the Aug. 18 open primary, and the top four vote-getters will advance to the general election regardless of political affiliation. To avoid the possibility of similar candidates playing spoiler in the general election, the state then uses ranked-choice voting, in which voters can rank candidates in order of preference. If no one receives a majority in the first round of tabulations, candidates are eliminated and their votes redistributed according to their rankings.
Picking through the field of candidates can be daunting, but luckily, I — Matt Acuña Buxton — am here with the latest iteration of my very serious Votable Index Based Entirely on Science (VIBES) analysis of the race. Find the previous rankings here. This time, I’m breaking it down into tiers.
S-Tier candidates
All signs are “Go” for these candidates, who’ve been out on the campaign trail and have consistently held commanding polling leads.
Democrat Tom Begich and Democratic running mate Julia Hnilicka
Begich is low-key one of the more influential members in the Alaska Legislature’s bipartisan streak, proving to be an effective negotiator who forged a working relationship with moderate Republicans during some of Gov. Mike Dunleavy’s most damaging years. His inclination to build bipartisan consensus on issues, however, has sometimes gotten him crosswise with fellow Democrats, as was the case with his advocacy behind the Alaska Reads Act, a grudge that some still hold to today. The pick of Julia Hnilicka, who comes from a long line of promising progressive candidates trying to win a seat that was never really winnable, is a smart nod toward the next generation.
Who’s he for: Progressives, independents and moderate “Competency Coalition” Republicans
What could go wrong: He’s established himself as the Democratic frontrunner – if not the overall frontrunner – for the seat, so it’ll take something really wild to knock him out of the general election.
Republican Bernadette Wilson and Republican running mate Mike Shower
Practically the diametric opposite of Begich is Wilson, a brash and incendiary conservative media personality. She’s certainly getting the base fired up with expansive promises of delivering the impossible, like big PFDs with little pain in what is largely a repeat of the formula Dunleavy rode to office — and then proceeded to never come close to delivering on. That she’s picked former Wasilla Republican Sen. Mike Shower as a running mate is an “interesting” choice, given that when he could be bothered to show up for his legislative job, he wasn’t exactly impressing.
Who she’s for: MAGA Republicans, Republicans who want to hitch their horse to a potential winner
What could go wrong: Wilson is the Republican frontrunner, but she’s also already expended a massive amount of resources on her campaign. According to the latest fundraising report, she had spent nearly 80% of the $305,000 she raised (Begich, by comparison, spent about 40% of his $345,000).
A-Tier candidates
These are the candidates who, if a vote were held today, would probably advance to the general election. They’re on the bubble, but at least they are on the right side of the bubble.
Republican Click Bishop and independent running mate Greta Schuerch
Bishop is a longtime fixture of the Alaska Legislature, where he’s been a prominent pro-labor Republican with a charming, folksy flair. He’s likely to be pro-development but will fight tooth and nail to make sure workers are taken care of.
Who he’s for: Moderate Republicans, public-sector workers looking for a Republican who will still approve pensions, pro-industry groups, pro-labor groups, independents and Democrats who are already used to voting for the least-bad candidate.
What could go wrong: While he’s a beloved character from the Alaska Legislature, legislative name recognition carries, perhaps unsurprisingly, little weight with voters in general. While polls show he’s breaking away from the pack, he’s still not truly established himself as a sure-fire general election contender.
Republican Dave Bronson and Republican running mate Josh Church
If you’ve followed my coverage or the coverage of The Alaska Current in general, you’ll know we’re not huge fans of Bronson’s disastrous single term as Anchorage mayor. It’s a stint that was riddled with self-dealing, a marked degradation in city services, illegal spending and a whole lot of other controversies that, in a different era, would have likely been the end of his political career. Yet, the polls show that being the mayor of the state’s largest city still counts for something.
Who he’s for: MAGA republicans, pro-industry Republicans who can look past the antisemitism and incompetency to his platform on taxation
What could go wrong: More people find out who Dave Bronson is.
B-tier candidates
These are the candidates who we could see making it into the general election if they run an effective campaign that finds an audience. They’re close enough that they don’t necessarily need something to go wrong for the above candidates.
Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and independent running mate Zac Johnson
As a longtime Young Person in the Alaska Legislature, Kreiss-Tomkins had a pretty buzzy launch among the insiders, who see him as a brilliant mind long focused on making Alaska a better, more livable place by making necessary investments – the kind of issues that frequently get overlooked or tsk-tsked by older generations for whom the status quo is working just fine. That said, his campaign has yet to become the next Mamdani, but there’s still a long way to go. He’s probably the closest to hopping up a tier, displacing Bronson if things go right.
Who he’s for: Optimistic progressives, moderates and the nerds
What could go right: He’s gonna need to find a way to break through the messaging.
Republican Treg Taylor and Republican running mate Candi English
If anyone directly involved in the Dunleavy administration is gonna make it to the general election, it’s probably former Attorney General Treg Taylor. While his support has long been within a margin of error of the polls, he’s also got a significant wad of cash and seems to be the chosen corporate candidate, which is to say he’s not a total wild card compared to the other right-wing candidates.
Who he’s for: MAGA Republicans, pro-industry Republicans who want a state government that’s in lock step and people who use the state’s homeschool allotments to pay for or supplement their private and religious education.
Independent Meda Dewitt and independent running mate Christopher Steere
Dewitt, a community organizer who helped spearhead the effort to recall Gov. Mike Dunleavy, is a feisty candidate who seems more willing than most to go after the governor and criticize the status quo. While she’s coming into the race without the same sort of institutional backing as other candidates, she could tap into voters’ desire for a change to the status quo. She also has a personal charm that few other candidates seem to have.
Who she’s for: Dunleavy haters, progressives looking for someone different
Republican Matt Heilala and Republican running mate Jesse Sumner
They say money can’t buy you happiness, but can it buy you a spot in the general election? That’s a mission that Republican Matt Heilala — the podiatrist who tried advance anti-trans measures on the Alaska Medical Board — will try to find out after he and his wife pumped nearly $1.3 million into his campaign. He’s been rolling around the state in a custom decked-out RV.
Who he’s for: People who can be won over by him allegedly being Trump’s golfing partner, so probably other conservative doctors
C-Tier candidates
These candidates have either had middling campaigns so far, poor polling, just entered the race or a combination of the three. These candidates not only need everything to go well for them in the next few months, but they probably need something to go south for the above candidates.
Independent Bill Walker and independent running mate Randy Hoffbeck
Former Gov. Bill Walker was probably the right governor for the time when oil revenues collapsed, unfortunately that also meant he will forever be tied to the deeply unpopular decisions of the time. He not only slashed the PFD but oversaw deep cuts to state services. Now, he’s seeking another term in office after losing in 2018 and again in 2022. It’s likely that the window has closed, but you never know.
Republican Lesil McGuire and independent running mate Elizabeth Rexford
McGuire is one of those complicated legislators. When she’s on, she’s one of the best, but the problem is she’s not always been on. Still, she’s a long way away from being a freshman lawmaker anymore, and is certainly willing to speak out, telling the ADN in her launch interview that she was flirting with filing as an independent: “I’ve been struggling with it for a year because I’m sick of the Republicans,” she added. “But I was one when I was 18, so it’s this complicated thing.”
Democrat Matt Claman and Democratic running mate Sarah Skeel
The second all-Democrat ticket in the race, Anchorage state Sen. Claman, has certainly irritated many progressives over the years as one of the more moderate-to-conservative Democrats in the chamber. Like other moderate Democrats, he’s not particularly thrilled about taxes to support the dividend.
Republican Shelley Hughes and Republican running mate Blake Gettys
Another longtime fixture of the Alaska Legislature, the former Republican state senator was one of the leading flag-bearers of of-the-moment conservative outrages. Her driving issue during the final years of the Legislature was singling out trans youth.
Republican Adam Crum and Republican running mate Bob Craig
Former Holder of Many Jobs in Dunleavy’s Administration, Crum has faced lingering controversies during his tenure, including his sketchy decision to put a bunch of money from the state’s rainy day fund into a private equity investment. While Crum hasn’t faced criminal charges for his actions, the reports reviewing the moves don’t exactly clear him. Instead, they paint a picture of someone who was happy to bend the rules.
Who he’s for: The beneficiaries of the Department of Revenue’s suspiciously secretive handling of oil and gas settlements, where he may have been giving oil companies potentially hundreds of millions of tax forgiveness.
Republican Edna Devries and Republican George Hightower
The longtime fixture of local Mat-Su politics, the 84-year-old Devries faces the same problem that most candidates do: name recognition.
D-tier
This final tier is reserved for the newcomers running without much institutional support or name recognition. Something really wild would have to happen for them to break into the race. In the ultimate outsider position, they can also be a conduit for outside-the-box messages, which could be particularly interesting, with the Parkin/Greer ticket being the only cross-party ticket on the ballot.
Independent Destry Payne and independent running mate Cliff Silvers
Republican Hank Kroll and independent running mate Tommy Nicholson
Republican James Parkin and Democratic running mate Ram Greer
D.N.F.
And for the candidates who didn’t even make it to the finish line.
Nancy Dahlstrom
After being forced out of the race for U.S. House in 2024, clearing the way for Republican Nick Begich to head to Congress, Lieutenant Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom showed herself the door, withdrawing from the race for governor ahead of the filing deadline. Her low-profile approach to politics hasn’t won her many fans, as was reflected in what were frankly miserable fundraising numbers earlier this year. That’ll clear Dahlstrom’s schedule to stay focused on her job of overseeing the state’s Division of Elections.
Matt Acuña Buxton is a long-time political reporter who has written for the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner and The Midnight Sun political blog. He also authors the daily politics newsletter, The Alaska Memo, and can frequently be found live-tweeting public meetings on Bluesky.
