There was never any doubt Democrat Mary Peltola or Republican US Sen. Dan Sullivan would advance out of Alaska’s open primary and face off in November, but Tuesday’s voting still offered some surprises.
With about 94% of precincts reporting, the preliminary results show Peltola holds a commanding five-point lead over the incumbent Republican in the open primary, leading with 48% of the vote to Sullivan’s 43%.
The results cement Alaska’s US Senate race as one of the best chances for Democrats to wrestle control of the Senate away from Trump-aligned Republicans.
In her victory speech in Anchorage, Peltola hammered home her campaign’s central message that she’s fighting for working-class people while Sullivan and Republicans continue to serve the wealthy.
“Dan Sullivan, every single vote, votes along with corporate greed,” she said, according to reporting by Alaska Public Media. “He is there for every fat cat in the nation, from healthcare to fuel to groceries to transportation to heat.”
Peltola made a splash when she ran for and won the special election for Alaska’s lone US House seat in 2022, following the death of US Rep. Don Young, making her the first Alaska Native person to serve in Congress. She ultimately lost in 2024, but did so while vastly outperforming the Democratic presidential ticket.
And while Sullivan and Republicans are working overtime to shackle Peltola to national Democrats, she’s taken steps to distance herself from the party.
She recently rejected 2024 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris’ support and told Outside politicians to steer clear of her race. She doubled down on that effort to break away from national Democrats, launching her first general election ad on Wednesday, pledging to “take on anyone, including Democrats, anyone in the Lower 48, who doesn’t understand what Alaska needs,” as well as highlighting her status as “one of the least loyal Democrats” in Congress.
And the bad news for Republicans doesn’t end there.
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr also advances
Sen. Sullivan will not only be heading into the general election down by five points, he won’t even be the only Dan Sullivan on the ballot.
A Petersburg man named Dan J. Sullivan, who Sen. Sullivan and Republicans insist is running as a decoy, finished in third place in the open primary race with about 2.3% of the vote, earning him a spot in the general election if he decides to stay in the race.
Republicans tried to get Dan J. Sullivan kicked off the ballot, but he won a legal fight to stay on the ballot.
The Alaska Division of Elections then took the unprecedented steps of stripping the Petersburg-based Sullivan of his party affiliation (Republican), using his full name (Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.), and gifting Sen. Sullivan a never-used “incumbent” label to avoid the confusion Dan J. Sullivan is accused of stirring up.
While the narrative that Dan J. Sullivan is running as a decoy has gained traction with Republicans, no credible evidence has ever materialized suggesting he’s running because of anything other than his dislike of Sen. Sullivan. Like Peltola, he said he has been bothered by Sen. Sullivan serving Trump and wealthy interests instead of focusing on problems facing the state.
“I am running because I am tired of sitting back and watching our current Senator routinely fail to represent the interests of ordinary Alaskans like me,” he said in a letter defending his candidacy. “The fact that Senator Sullivan shares my first and last names adds insult to injury, motivating me to raise my hand as an alternative choice for Alaskans.”
Who will finish fourth?
The fourth and final spot in the race is still too close to call.
Just 23 votes currently separate Democrat David Leslie and Republican Gerald Heikes for fourth. Both candidates were among several minor candidates that Outside political groups linked to both parties tried to boost heading into the election, hoping to siphon votes from Peltola and Sullivan. While most of the candidates had little to no presence in Alaska, both Heikes and Leslie were active in Alaska politics and have been running small, grassroots campaigns.
The Outside-driven spending appears to have had little impact. For example, Green Party candidate Richard Grayson—boosted by a conservative group trying to paint Peltola as too friendly with Trump— finished second to last in the 16-way race with just 328 votes.
Matt Acuña Buxton is a long-time political reporter who has written for the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner and The Midnight Sun political blog. He also authors the daily politics newsletter, The Alaska Memo, and can frequently be found live-tweeting public meetings on Bluesky.
