On Friday, the first domino fell in what could be a flurry of changes in the race for Alaska’s next governor.
The withdrawal of Democrat Tom Begich, a former Anchorage state senator who finished second in the state’s Aug. 18 open primary, clears the way for fellow Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins to take on a divided Republican field that—as of now—is busy fighting each other. But with the deadline to finalize the slate for November’s ballot at 5 p.m. Monday, things could still change.
The last-minute shuffle is a product of campaigns navigating the state’s open primary and ranked-choice voting system. The system aims to give voters more say in who ends up on the general election ballot by bypassing the old semi-closed partisan primaries and using ranked-choice voting in the general to prevent like-minded candidates from playing spoiler against each other.
However, campaigns have also been wary of banking on voters to follow through with ranking like-minded candidates.
Begich said in his announcement that kind of analysis played into his decision.
“The data we’ve seen makes clear that the strongest path to winning in November is not two Democratic candidates competing for the same donors and resources,” he said, “It’s bringing those people together behind one ticket.”
And while Democrats and their moderate allies are banking on Kreiss-Tomkins—whose running mate is independent Anchorage Assemblymember Zac Johnson—as their best hope for keeping the governor’s office out of the hands of conservative Republicans, those conservative Republicans are divided on who they should be supporting.
Begich’s withdrawal clears the way for three of the 12 Republicans who filed for the race to appear on the ballot, and judging by the op-eds in the conservative press, ads from supporters, and the candidates’ own statements, there’s little sense of agreement on the right.
The top two Republicans in the primary—Bernadette Wilson and Dave Bronson—have both made clear that they have no intention of dropping out of the race. While Wilson has long been the frontrunner among Republicans, she has also faced mounting conservative opposition, including attacks on her financial record.
Under Alaska’s open primary system, the primary’s fifth-place finisher, former Alaska Attorney General Treg Taylor, would have advanced to the general election.
On Monday morning, however, the Division of Elections formally announced that it won’t certify Taylor for the race, referencing a decision from the Alaska Public Offices Commission last week that found he never filed accurate financial disclosures with the state regarding a 234-unit apartment building he owns.
On Sunday, he called on Bronson and Wilson to consolidate their ticket, saying he would endorse a combined ticket. At the time, he did not say if he would drop out.
“Alaskans have a choice,” Taylor said. “We can divide the Alaska vote and give an advantage to a campaign fueled by California money, or we can unite and give Alaskans a real choice. We believe Alaska wins when Alaskans come together.”
With Taylor formally blocked from appearing on the November ballot, his running mate, oil-field services executive Candice English, would be next in line to take over his spot.
But with mounting pressure for Republicans to consolidate their campaigns, she could also drop out, which would result in another shuffle in candidates.
It would elevate moderate Republican Click Bishop to fourth place in the general election. However, Bishop would likely be entering the field without the same support he’s received from organized labor. The Alaska AFL-CIO endorsed Kreiss-Tomkins last week, signaling that union support has shifted away from Bishop after his sixth-place finish in the primary.
If Bishop drops out, then seventh-place finisher Republican Adam Crum would be the next in line.
Matt Acuña Buxton is a long-time political reporter who has written for the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner and The Midnight Sun political blog. He also authors the daily politics newsletter, The Alaska Memo, and can frequently be found live-tweeting public meetings on Bluesky.
