While Alaska’s congressional races and ballot initiatives have dominated this year’s election cycle, the outcome of the state’s 50 legislative races will also have a big impact on the next two years.
Bipartisan coalition majorities of Democrats, moderate Republicans, and independents controlled both the state House and Senate for the first time following the 2024 elections, leading to the passage of things like a historic education funding boost, public pensions and election reforms, though only the school funding became law over Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy’s vetoes. This year, the bipartisan majorities appear poised to defend or even expand the number of seats they control.
The results of Alaska’s Aug. 18 open primary election showed several House seats held by more conservative Republicans could be vulnerable to moderate challengers and that two openings in the Senate appear on track to be filled by coalition-friendly candidates.
The House
The 40-member Alaska House has been narrowly divided in recent years, often leaving 21-member majorities with the tricky task of getting everyone in their caucus to agree to do just about anything. But judging by this year’s primary election results, the 21-member House Bipartisan Coalition could add several members to its ranks.
The brightest hope for a flip is in Homer, where far-right Republican Rep. Sarah Vance trailed independent challenger Brent Johnson by about 13 points in her primary.
Vance is a Christian nationalist lawmaker who was recently given a warning by the Legislative Ethics Committee for using state resources to bully a local newspaper into sanitizing its coverage of Charlie Kirk.
Johnson, meanwhile, has already signaled he would join a bipartisan coalition if elected.
It’s the second time Johnson will face Vance in a general election, and it’s clear that two years have made a difference for the commercial fisherman.
After finishing about 10 points behind Vance in 2024’s primary and losing the general by about 4 points, Johnson led Vance in the 2026 primary with 57% of the vote to her 43%.
A second rematch from 2024 is on the 2026 ballot in a West Anchorage House seat where Republican Rep. Mia Costello trails her Democratic opponent, Denny Wells, by 148 votes. Wells, a local businessman who has run several times for the position, trailed Costello in the 2024 primary and went on to lose by more than 500 votes in the general election.
Wells told the Anchorage Daily News that he feels this year is different because voters are increasingly fed up with the status quo.
“I’ve heard, in the last two election cycles, really concerns about our education funding and class sizes and closing schools, and concerns about not investing in ourselves,” Wells said.
In Fairbanks, a seat held by Republican Rep. Frank Tomaszewski looks like it could slip from Republican control. Tomaszewski left the House to run for a Senate seat, leaving the seat open.
In his place, Tomaszewski’s wife, Harmony Tomaszewski, filed to run for the seat that represents part of Fairbanks, Chena Hot Springs Road, and Salcha against independent candidate Joy Beth Cottle, a longtime firefighter. While Cottle faced off against Frank Tomaszewski in 2024 and lost by more than 10 points in the general election, she led Harmony Tomaszewski, 53% to 47% in the primary.
The Senate
The Senate was rocked this year when longtime lawmakers Sens. Lyman Hoffman (D-Bethel) and Gary Stevens (R-Kodiak) announced they would retire. Both have been key members of the Senate’s bipartisan majorities and leave decades-long legacies behind, and stand to be replaced by two of the most influential members of the House’s bipartisan majorities.
House Speaker Bryce Edgemon (I-Dillingham) led the primary in a crowded race to fill Hoffman’s seat. And Kodiak Republican Rep. Louise Stutes—who also served one term as Speaker—finished her primary with nearly an outright majority. Both signal strong chances of continuing their political careers in the 20-member Senate, maintaining its 14-member bipartisan majority.
Alaska Senate members serve four-year terms, with half of the members up for election each cycle.
One more big race
Of course, the headlining accomplishments of this Legislature’s bipartisan majorities all ran headfirst into a veto by Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy, meaning that the public pension and election reform bills passed by the Legislature never became law. The education funding boost became law only because enough Republicans broke from the governor to support the override.
Dunleavy—and his strongest in the nation veto power—have greatly limited what the Legislature’s bipartisan coalitions have been able to accomplish in the past eight years. And more often than not, lawmakers have spent considerable time and effort fighting Dunleavy, whether it be on the budget, school funding or his latest push to dramatically slash taxes for a large-scale liquefied natural gas pipeline.
A great deal of what the Legislature can and will get done over the next two years will depend in large part on whether they’re in alignment with the state’s next governor or are back to butting heads.
Matt Acuña Buxton is a long-time political reporter who has written for the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner and The Midnight Sun political blog. He also authors the daily politics newsletter, The Alaska Memo, and can frequently be found live-tweeting public meetings on Bluesky.
