This story has been updated with the third batch of election results.
Alaska’s polls have closed, but Alaskans—and the rest of the country—will likely have to wait until later this month for a clear view of what happened Tuesday.
That’s because Alaska’s 15-day window for the last overseas ballot to arrive means tens of thousands of additional votes have yet to be counted in the state’s races. The state also waits until then, Nov. 18, to tabulate ranked-choice votes in any race where no candidate has more than 50% of the vote, a process that can cause significant swings.
It’s why one of the closing messages of politicians this year is patience when it comes to results.
“When election day comes, remember that we’re not going to know the election results right away,” Rep. Genevieve Mina, D-Anchorage, said at a rally in early October. “We want to make sure that in this state … they are counting every single ballot. If you hear anybody saying, ‘Oh, the polls have flipped,’ No, no, that’s called democracy at work.”
In 2022, for example, Republican US Sen. Lisa Murkowski only had a narrow lead against a far-right Republican challenger during the early results, but took a commanding lead once the ranked-choice voting tabulation was conducted 15 days after the election.
Once the third-place Democrat was eliminated and the vote retabulated, Murkowski finished with 53.7% to Kelly Tshibaka’s 46.3%.
While the wait isn’t anything new, it certainly doesn’t take the edge off the anticipation.
This year’s election has some particularly weighty decisions, at a time when Republicans have struggled under President Donald Trump’s second term. Democrats have hammered them over rising prices, Trump’s war in Iran, and their handling of the Epstein Files, making inroads with voters that were unthinkable just a year ago.
With that energy, Democrats are feeling optimistic as Alaskans select their next governor after eight years under Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy, decide whether to keep two Republican members of Congress, vote on 50 state legislative seats, and decide two ballot measures.
Polls show Democrats are in a good position to win the Alaska governor’s seat with Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, are slightly favored in the US Senate race with Mary Peltola, and have been closing the distance in the US House race with support behind independent candidate Bill Hill.
In the Alaska Legislature, lawmakers in the bipartisan coalition majorities hope to hold onto and expand their seats in what is also expected to be a good year for them.
U.S. Senate
First results are expected between 8:45 p.m. and 9 p.m., with several updates expected throughout the night. The Alaska Division of Election typically does daily updates in the late afternoon as additional ballots are received and tallied.
Too close to call: According to the third batch of election results, Democrat Mary Peltola is neck and neck with Republican U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan, 47.36% to Sullivan’s 48.59%, with about 33% of the vote counted. Notably, in a race that has had intense focus on the impact that a Petersburg man running in the race as Daniel J. Sullivan would have, the gap between the two candidates is currently larger than the number of votes that Daniel J. Sullivan received 1.65% of the vote.
President Donald Trump had brought a legal challenge against the state, arguing that it should be barred from certifying its results if the Republican lost to Pelotla by more votes than Daniel J. Sullivan received. A judge had already tossed the lawsuit, arguing that the president lacked legal standing to sue the state and that the president’s proposed resolution—a largely detail-free “investigation”—would violate Alaskans’ fundamental privacy rights.
Republican Gerald Heikes, who saw a last-minute effort to boost his candidacy as a more conservative alternative to Sullivan, is receiving 2.08%.
Alaska Governor
Too close to call: According to early results, Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins holds a sizable lead over the three Republican candidates in the race to be Alaska’s next governor. He has 48.86% of the vote, while Bernadette Wilson stands at 29.46%, Dave Bronson at 14.06% and Treg Taylor at 7.33%, with about 33% of the vote counted. While there are still tens of thousands of additional votes to be tallied, the big question in this race is how Republican voters have ranked their ballot.
While ranked-choice voting is intended to let like-minded candidates run without playing spoiler, it requires them to work together instead of fighting with each other as they jockey for position. That race to be the Republican forerunner was never truly decided, even after President Donald Trump entered the race late to endorse Wilson, and the candidates have stopped short of backing each other.
If Kreiss-Tomkins emerges victorious once the vote tabulations are completed, he’ll be Alaska’s first democratic governor since Tony Knowles in 1998.
US House
Too close to call: Republican US Rep. Nick Begich III, holds a narrow lead over independent candidate Bill Hill, with Begich holding 49.98% and Hill holding 40.05% of the vote, with about 33% of the vote counted. While Begich had long been favored to win over Hill, the race has tightened in the last month, especially as Alaskans have faced high fuel prices.
Matt Acuña Buxton is a long-time political reporter who has written for the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner and The Midnight Sun political blog. He also authors the newsletter on the Alaska Legislature, The Alaska Memo, and can frequently be found live-tweeting public meetings on Bluesky. Reach him at matt [at] thealaskacurrent.com.
