When Rep. Josiah Patkotak (I – HD40 – Arctic Slope) filed his letter of intent to run for mayor of the North Slope Borough, he likely put control of the Alaska State House in play.
Patkotak began caucusing with Republicans in 2023, giving them the additional member they needed to end several years of a bipartisan majority. If Patkotak wins the mayoral election, it would leave House District 40 open in 2024. With Republican control heavily reliant on the Bush Caucus, the race for HD40 is likely to be very competitive, and will help determine control of the closely divided State House.
If Patkotak wins the mayor’s seat, Governor Dunleavy has 30 days to confirm “any qualified person” as a replacement. The Republican House Majority Caucus will confirm the appointment.
The Arctic Slope is on Iñupiat and Gwich’in land and is the northernmost region of Alaska. It consists of two areas: the Northwest Arctic Borough, and the North Slope Borough. They include the hub communities of Kotzebue in the northwest and Utqiaġvik on the Slope.
In recent years, the Bush — especially the Arctic Slope — has shifted ideologically to the right. With very slim majorities in the State House for several years in a row, Republicans must hold on to all four members of the Bush Caucus in order to keep the House.
The Bush’s Shift to the Right
Historically, the Bush is more Democratic-leaning than the rest of the state. The chart below shows the it’s presidential margins compared to the statewide vote.
However, the Bush has recently become a much tougher place for Democrats to win.
Between the 2018 and 2022 governor’s races, the Bush shifted to the right by a margin of 33 points. Meanwhile, the rest of the state stayed the exact same. The Bush’s leap single-handedly pushed Dunleavy past 50%, allowing him to win without triggering ranked-choice voting.
The Arctic Slope has shifted the fastest. It has swung right in every presidential race since 2012, as well as in most other races since 2014:
Meanwhile, the rest of Alaska did the exact opposite and shifted left in nearly every election. What’s going on with the Arctic Slope and the Bush?
Resource Politics are Critical on the Arctic Slope
The Arctic Slope’s relationship to resource extraction is unique in the Bush. Oil and gas fund a whopping 90% of the North Slope Borough’s budget, while the Red Dog Mine funds 74% of the Northwest Arctic Borough. Oil and gas also employ many locals in an area where few other employment opportunities exist.
In comparison, there are no other active mines or oil and gas leases anywhere else in the Bush. One big reason is that Western and Southwest Alaska experience climate change at a disproportionate rate, which means projects like the Donlin Gold Mine are more controversial.
Farther north, candidates supported by oil and gas companies are much more likely to win their elections. The industry favors conservatives, with 96% of their political contributions going to registered Republicans since 2011.
Of the remaining 4% of non-Republican donations? Most went to pro-oil and gas legislators from the Bush.
The Dividend vs State Services
Patkotak explained that since services on the Arctic Slope are heavily financed by natural resources, voters are less concerned about state budget cuts compared to the rest of the Bush.
“Services on the Slope are done by the Borough as opposed to other areas,” Patkotak said. “So the more north you go, the more the PFD is an issue versus state spending on government services. If we didn’t have the taxing authority that we fought for fifty years ago, I’m not sure we’d be as optimistic about things in our own backyard.”
Dunleavy has gone after the rural power cost equilization program (PCE) for years, and threatened the Slope’s taxing authority in 2020. Yet, he still improved in the Bush by 11 points from 2018. Factoring in failed Republican 2022 gubernatorial candidate Charlie Pierce’s 5% performance, Republicans even flipped Patkotak’s HD40 and came just 600 votes from flipping the Bush entirely.
The Battle for HD40 in 2024
The race for Patkotak’s seat will be heavily contested. Republicans hold a slim three-seat majority in the State House, but have declined to work with Rep. David Eastman (R – Wasilla) or former Speaker Louise Stutes (R – Kodiak). To keep their majority, Republicans need to maintain every seat in their caucus.
Will current trends put HD40 out of reach for a Democrat? The race could still be close — Patkotak won his race against a Democrat in 2020 by just 200 votes.
Big questions remain – will anyone challenge Patkotak in the mayoral race? Who would Dunleavy appoint to fill Patkotak’s House seat? Who would run for the open seat? – but one thing is certain: The Bush is the most politically independent region of Alaska, and often swings cycle to cycle.
