In the time of Trump, Alaskans aren’t happy with their statewide representation.
According to poll results released by Alaska Survey Research head Ivan Moore, Gov. Mike Dunleavy and U.S. Sens. Lisa Murkowski and Dan Sullivan have seen their popularity ratings tank since President Donald Trump took office, with Murkowski leading the most precipitous fall-off as her base of moderate and progressive voters has soured on her.
The poll surveyed 1,958 registered voters between July 1 and Aug. 1, following Congress’s passage of the Trump mega bill. It’s the latest installment of a quarterly tracking poll the Alaska-based polling firm conducts, and Moore compared the results to surveys conducted in January and April of this year.
While Republicans have tried to frame the second Trump presidency as a series of non-stop wins for the state, the reality has been far more rocky for a state that’s more reliant on federal funding than most. Federal layoffs have hit the state hard, and the cutbacks to programs for working-class Alaskans like Medicaid and food stamps contained in the Trump megabill are also expected to be devastating for the state.
For his part, Trump’s approval has slid from a net approval rating of +5 (46% positive, 38% negative, 15% no opinion) to a net approval rating of -8 (40% positive, 52% negative and 4% undecided).
Moore said the slide is similar to nationwide trends, and it’s dragging down Republicans.
Murkowski, who cast a decisive vote for the Trump megabill, paid the biggest price among Alaskans.
Murkowski went from a net approval rating of +3 (47% positive, 44% negative and 8% undecided) in January before Trump’s inauguration, to a net approval rating of -47 (33% positive, 60% negative and 7% undecided) as of late July.
The senior senator saw a precipitous fall-off in approval between April and late July with progressive voters (who went from +54 to -21) and moderate voters (who went from +30 to +2), two groups that have played a vital role in her re-election, while making no ground with conservatives (holding perfectly steady at -64).
“(Conservatives) didn’t like her then. Don’t like her now,” Moore wrote, adding of the progressive drop-off in support, “Seriously, +54 to -21 in three months. Hell hath no fury like a progressive scorned.”
Moore commented that it’s hard to see how she recovers in time for the 2028 election, suggesting that she may look for an offramp before then. She’s since made headlines about comments suggesting her openness to running for governor in 2026, when Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy hits his term limit.
For his part, Dunleavy isn’t doing particularly well with voters.
He’s been an ardent supporter of the Trump agenda, frequently pointing to the re-election of Trump as a cure-all for the state’s many problems that have worsened under Dunleavy’s time in office, and has also created many of his own problems. That includes his unprecedented veto of public school funding, which a bipartisan coalition of legislators — including several conservative Republicans — overrode in an extremely rare vote.
“Old Mikey’s sucking wind, too,” Moore wrote while explaining Dunleavy’s slide from a net approval rating of -4 (42% positive, 46% negative and 11% undecided) to a net approval rating of -21 (35% positive, 56% negative and 9% undecided).
U.S. Sen. Sullivan, who has traditionally had pretty good approval ratings thanks in part to keeping a low and milquetoast profile, also saw a steep drop-off with Alaska voters. Like the governor’s office, Sullivan is set to be on the ballot in 2026. He’s been one of the state’s biggest boosters of Trump, deflecting questions about how his policies would harm the state by pointing to the potential for greater resource extraction in the state.
Sullivan entered the Trump term in January with a net approval rating of +8 (46% positive, 38% negative and 15% no opinion) to a net approval rating of -8 (40% positive, 48% negative and 11% no opinion.”
However, Moore said that it doesn’t mean he’s necessarily vulnerable for the 2026 race. In a hypothetical question about whether Democratic former U.S. House Rep. Mary Peltola — who has teased running for statewide office in 2026 — could beat Sullivan for the U.S. Senate, he found that Sullivan currently has a 4-point lead (Sullivan 47% to Peltola at 43%). Moore chalked it up to the underlying advantage Republicans have in the state, especially when everyone seems to be pretty unpopular.
“It seems anomalous, but it’s just the dynamic of mainly Republicans and/or conservatives either liking both Peltola and Sullivan, or disliking both Peltola and Sullivan… when they are liked or disliked equally, Alaskans pick Sullivan,” he said.