Alaska’s primary election is less than a week away, but independent congressional candidate Bill Hill’s campaign is already looking ahead to the general election—and they like what they’re seeing.
New polling of the race for Alaska’s lone seat in the US House shows Hill is within the margin of error of freshman Republican US Rep. Nick Begich III, with plenty of room to grow in terms of name recognition. The polling was conducted by Democratic polling firm GBAO, which contacted 500 likely voters between Aug. 3 and 5, with a self-reported margin of error of 4.4%, and shared first with the Alaska Current.
In a head-to-head race, the poll found Begich currently leads Hill 46%-42%.
Hill, a former educator and commercial fisherman who is Alaska Native, is the lone serious contender in the race after Democratic candidate Matt Schultz exited the race in July.
Despite trailing Begich, the Hill campaign says the poll shows they have a path to victory.
That comes down to two main things: name recognition and favorability.
There’s a gap in name recognition between the two candidates, according to the polling, with just 34% of voters having an opinion of Hill while nearly 85% had an opinion of Begich. The campaign argues that even with work to do in name recognition, they’re still within striking distance of the well-funded incumbent.
And in just about every category of favorability, Hill comes out on top.
Of the 34% of voters with an opinion of Hill, about two-thirds have a positive view. Meanwhile, voters with an opinion of Begich are split, with 41% favorable and 43% unfavorable. And among voters who know both candidates, Hill leads by 21 points, while leading by 16 points among fellow independent voters.
Voters who were then read short profiles of each candidate—both designed to reflect the candidates’ own messaging—had a change of heart, with most of the undecided voters and some of the Begich voters lining up behind Hill.
According to the polling, voters who heard both candidates’ profiles went 52% for Hill and 42% for Begich. Hill cleans up particularly well with independent voters, sweeping up 60% of them to Begich’s 29%.
The poll stands as a reminder of just how critical name recognition will be in this race in a crowded election year headlined by the high-stakes race for US Senate that has already attracted tens of millions of dollars in political spending. And Begich will be heading into the final stretch with a hefty $3.5 million war chest, compared with the $500,000 that Hill reported in July.
“A 10-point lead on an incumbent when voters know who Bill is shows Alaskans are ready for a new representative in Congress,” Kevin Groh, Hill’s campaign manager, told the Alaska Current. “These numbers reflect what we’ve been hearing all across the state this summer—hardworking Alaskans are tired of paying more for healthcare, gas, and groceries so Nick Begich and his billionaire backers can get another tax break.”
Matt Acuña Buxton is a long-time political reporter who has written for the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner and The Midnight Sun political blog. He also authors the daily politics newsletter, The Alaska Memo, and can frequently be found live-tweeting public meetings on Bluesky.
