If current election results hold, Bronson will be the first incumbent Anchorage mayor in over three decades to be forced into a run-off, after a disastrous first term marred by incompetence, illegal contracting, cronyism and controversy.
As the only serious Republican candidate in a race with three significant center to left-of-center challengers, and with 52,661 ballots counted, Bronson is currently in second place with 34.91% of the vote, behind former Assembly Chair Suzanne LaFrance, who is at 36.45%. Ballots will continue to be counted over the next week, but it is clear that Bronson and LaFrance, as the top two candidates in a race where no one garnered 45% of the vote, are headed to a run-off election. Bill Popp is at 17.12%, while Chris Tuck is coming in fourth at 7.88%.
Bronson squeaked out a narrow win in 2021 by promising change to an electorate that was angry about COVID-19 mitigation, but in the race for a second term, he is an incumbent running on his record. Incumbents generally have an advantage when seeking re-election due to fundraising, name recognition and past policy decisions they can campaign on.
Lack of coordination among opposition candidates can also deliver a large incumbency advantage when multiple opposition candidates with similar platforms run, resulting in a split vote. This was at play in this race, giving Bronson a large advantage that he was unable to take advantage of as a historically unpopular mayor.
“Anytime there is an incumbent, the central question is do we keep or reject that person,” political consultant Jim Lottsfeldt said. “Bronson has two-thirds of the electorate that said ‘we want someone else.’”
Bronson’s term has been marked by multiple wrongful firing lawsuits, costly tax-payer funded settlements, allegations of surveillance, city-wide shutdowns of businesses and schools due to a failure to plow the streets and a pivot to winter-only shelter, leading to record number homelessness deaths and large, dangerous homeless encampments throughout the city.
Lottsfeldt said that as an incumbent who has shown himself not up to the task of being the mayor, Bronson doesn’t have a good argument to make this time around and is left with the option of trying to lay blame on everyone around him.
Bronson has already begun releasing inaccurate attack ads, including one where he blamed his likely run-off opponent, LaFrance, for a public restroom proposal that was placed on the ballot by the Assembly six months after her term ended.
“It’s going to be a tough road for him,” Lottsfeldt said. “He can’t lay blame on the assembly for firing Amy Demboski, who is now suing the city and is likely to be awarded a lot of money, and he can’t blame the Assembly for other debacles, like hiring the fraudulent Joe Gerace.”
Previous incumbent mayors who easily won re-election in the first round of voting include Former Anchorage Mayor’s Ethan Berkowitz, who won re-election in 2018 with just over 55%, Dan Sullivan who won with just under 59% in 2012, Mark Begich who won with just under 56% in 2006, and Rick Mystrom who won in 1997 with 53%.
Only one incumbent mayor in Anchorage’s history, Republican George Wuersch, has lost re-election. He had competition from a former two term mayor, Rick Mystrom, also a Republican, and took 37% of the vote, leaving Democrat Mark Begich to win in the first round with just over 45% of the vote.
The last incumbent mayor to face a run-off was Tom Fink in 1990, who received 38% of the vote while pitted against another strong Republican candidate, and narrowly prevailed in his run-off race.
Bronson is going into the run-off with a large cash advantage but Lottsfeldt said he doesn’t expect that to help him for much longer.
“Bronson is never facing good news … At the end of the day he has proven he is incompetent,” Lottsfeldt said. “Conservatives know his goose is cooked. That will hurt his fundraising.”
