The deadline to register to vote in Alaska’s Aug. 18 primary election is this Sunday, and it’s set up to be one of the more consequential state primaries in recent memory.
That’s because the election will narrow the expansive 17-candidate field for Alaska’s next governor down to four, giving us a clearer picture of who may replace Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy after his eight years in office. Will Alaskans go for more of the same and vote for whoever promises the largest dividend — even if everyone knows it’s not realistic? Or will they opt for a candidate with a more sober view of the state’s challenges and needs?
There are several candidates for each of those views, plenty who are somewhere in between and a few more who are out on the fringes.
Under Alaska’s open primary election system, all of them will run against each other in one mass race on the primary ballot, with the top four candidates advancing to the general election. And while the general election uses ranked-choice voting, which allows voters to support like-minded candidates without worrying about splitting the vote, primary voters will only get one pick.
So while the ranked-choice voting is meant to reduce the need to strategically vote, the primary is all about strategic voting.
And with a race flush with conservative Republicans with varying ties to Dunleavy — at one point including a former commissioner, a former attorney general and his lieutenant governor — the progressive and moderate candidates seem to have a bit of an advantage in large part because there are fewer of them competing for moderate and progressive voters.
According to the latest poll from Alaska-based pollster Alaska Survey Research, Democratic candidate Tom Begich and Republican candidate Bernadette Wilson have maintained their one-two positions at 19.7% and 14.6%, respectively, while other candidates are jostling for position. Both have benefited from early entrances into the race that have effectively positioned them as their party’s standard-bearer.
Sitka Democratic candidate Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is making the strongest push to join the final four, with him now sitting in third place with 12.2% of the vote. Kreiss-Tomkins, a former state legislator and the youngest of the leading candidates, has been making solid inroads with the more moderate crowd after selecting independent Anchorage Assemblymember Zac Johnson as his running mate.
There’s not a lot of light separating the next three candidates — right-wing Republican Dave Bronson (10.9%), former independent Gov. Bill Walker (9.4%) and moderate labor-friendly Republican Click Bishop (9.3%). Of these three, Bishop has fallen the most, while Walker has made a significant leap forward.
Each would bring a significantly different flavor to the governor’s race as the fourth and final candidate.
Bronson, who was Anchorage’s mayor for a single disastrous term, is the most conservative of the bunch. After his single term as governor, which included the landmark decision to cut the dividend in the face of collapsing state revenue, Walker has tried to run twice again against Dunleavy and failed both times, but he’s also seeking to be the more adult-in-the-room voice about the reality of the state’s financial situation. Former state Sen. Bishop is a well-liked moderate with a strong record of supporting labor.
For a handy breakdown of the field, check out our way-too-early tier list of candidates.
Other races
There are only a few races where the primary election will narrow the field, and none will eliminate as many serious candidates as the governor’s race.
On the statewide end, the race for U.S. Senate and U.S. House have both drawn sprawling fields of perennial candidates, but the forerunners — U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan, his challenger Mary Peltola, U.S. Rep. Nick Begich III and his challengers Bill Hill and Matt Schultz — are all expected to advance to the general election.
Out of the 50 state legislative seats on this year’s ballot, just seven will see a candidate eliminated at the primary election: The open Senate seat in Southwest Alaska, the Eagle River House seat held by Republican Rep. Jamie Allard, the Wasilla House seat held by Rep. Garret Nelson (who was appointed and never won election), the Big Lake/Denali House seat held by Republican Rep. Kevin McCabe and the open Dillingham/Southwest Alaska House seat.
What’s next
You can register to vote or update your voter registration here.
To register, you need to be an Alaska resident, a U.S. citizen and be 18 on election day. In Alaska, you can pre-register to vote if you’re under 18 as long as you’ll be 18 on the day of the election.
Matt Acuña Buxton is a long-time political reporter who has written for the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner and The Midnight Sun political blog. He also authors the daily politics newsletter, The Alaska Memo, and can frequently be found live-tweeting public meetings on Bluesky.
